Archive - Sep 19, 2015

"It’s my sense that this is happening, unless they change their minds"...

What the Fed really decided Thursday was to ride the zero-bound right smack into the next recession. When that calamity happens not too many months from now, the 28-year experiment in monetary central planning inaugurated by a desperate Alan Greenspan after Black Monday in October 1987 will come to an abrupt and merciful halt. Yellen and Co should be so lucky as to only face torches and pitch forks.

For China's middle class, whose dreams of market bubble riches just went up in a margin call, there is still hope to pretend to be richer than one's neighbor courtesy of a faux rose gold cell phone. The answer: a tablespoon of sperm. As Xinhua reports, "technophiles may not have to reach far to find the cash for Apple's latest model. According to an advertisement with the Shanghai Sperm Bank - all you have to do is donating." "No need to sell a kidney...Shanghai sperm bank can make your iPhone 6s dream come true," says the ad which has gone viral on China's most popular social networking app WeChat this week.

The Fed is truly cornered. If it fails to hike rates it will have no ammo for when the next crisis hits the US. But it if hikes rates now while the economy is so weak (more on this in a moment), it’s likely to kick off or deepen a recession.

The divergence meme that is the center of the dollar bull narrative was never predicated on precise timing of Fed's lift-off.   To go from no hike in September to Fed will never raise interest rates, or QE4 is next, is a needless exaggeration.  

For the second consecutive day, Bashar al-Assad pounded ISIS targets across Syria on Friday, serving notice that Russia's stepped up "technical" and "logistical" support may have turned the tide in the country's four-year civil war. With Moscow having called Washington's bluff, Obama instructs Defense Secretary Ashton Carter to liaise with the Russian military while in Tehran, Major General Qassem Soleimani lays bare America's ISIS strategy.

The incredibly strong demand for physical precious metals around the world continues to be obscured by institutional selling of futures contracts on the COMEX. The paper or electronic market continues to dominate the spot price for now. But rising premiums and delays for popular bullion products suggests that proper price discovery reflecting real world supply and demand may be at hand.