Archive - Sep 23, 2015

After yesterday's unexpectedly strong 2 Year auction, and coupled with the latest market selloff, there were few dark skies ahead of today's auction of $35 billion in 5 Year paper. Furthermore, suggesting today's auction would be very strong was today's repo market which saw the 5Y trading special at -0.15% on the curve, just begging for a short squeeze into the auction. That is precisely what happened.

Having cited China and EM concerns, The Fed's chickening out from a rate-hike was 'supposed' to provide some support from the drastically derisking emerging markets of the world... it did not. In fact, MSCI Emerging Market FX index just crashed to its lowest since September 2009 with Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia seeing the biggest plunges post-Fed.

While the Federal Reserve has chosen to keep the Federal Funds rate near zero, it is merely delaying the inescapable and inevitable result of its own monetary policy – another needed economic correction that its actions will have generated but which it will, no doubt, blame on the supposed “failures” of the market economy.

The last time September Retail Sales growth was this weak was 2009, limping aimlessly out of the 'Great Recession'. With a mere 0.9% year-over-year growth, Johnson-Redbook data seems to confirm what Reuters reports is looming - the weakest U.S. holiday sales season for retailers since the recession. Consultancy firm AlixPartners expects sales to grow 2.8-3.4% during the November-December shopping period compared with 4.4% in 2014, based on analyzing consumer spending trends so far this year, noting (myth-busting for permabulls) dollars saved at the pump are being directed to personal savings or on non-retail activities.

Having run the stops above Monday's panic-buying highs, algos appeared to recognize that oil production rose last week for the first time in 8 weeks (and the seasonals of inventory changes are about to turn unfavorable)... From a $47 peak post-DOE, WTI crude is back testing a $44 handle...

The conventional financial industry touts gaining financial independence by playing Wall Street's game: working a conventional job for decades to accumulate a chunk of money in retirement funds that Wall Street wizards magically squeeze for hefty annual returns in a zero-yield world--in a completely risk-free manner that keeps your nest egg intact, of course. Financial independence via self-employment is still possible, and there are a number of pathways to that goal.

Paying a premium for a pet rock?

Home building is a miserable business. First you borrow to buy land, then borrow some more to develop land, then more to build, while paying out exorbitant executive compensation all along. Years later, you finally sell the finished product, maybe for a profit, maybe at a loss. Builders have been buying more land at much higher prices in hope for a continuation of optimal conditions. Lucrative margins can turn into large losses, much like 2006-07. Unless the Yellen Fed comes up with a big surprise, shorting rallies will be the way to go.

Despite saying that press reports of the CEO leaving were "utterly ridiculous", he just did:

*VW CEO WINTERKORN STEPPING DOWN OVER WIDENING DIESEL SCANDAL
*VW'S WINTERKORN SAYS UNAWARE OF ANY WRONGDOING ON MY PART

One can only wonder what his "retirement" package will be.

Burn baby burn!

The BRL is plunging anew, puntuating the largest five day drop in four years and hitting fresh record lows agains the dollar.

Following API's bigger than expected inventory draw, DOE confirmed a 1.925mm draw (more than expected) but the bigger story is likely that crude production rose 0.21% - the first rise in 8 weeks. Crude's initial reaction was dip but algos have morphed that into a rip now above $47.

The US government’s ongoing drone strikes in Yemen are little-known to the general American public, but, according to a U.N. report published last week, U.S. drone strikes have killed roughly 40 Yemeni civilians in the past year. The figure is 60% greater than the number of civilians killed by al Qaeda in that same period (al Qaeda is reportedly responsible for 24 civilian deaths).

The FBI has recovered the personal and work-related e-mails from the private computer server used by Hillary Clinton during her time as secretary of state, and which had allegedly been wiped clea. The FBI obtained Clinton’s server from the Colorado-based company managing it. The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s success at salvaging personal e-mails that Clinton said had been deleted raises the possibility that the Democratic presidential candidate’s correspondence eventually could become public. The disclosure of such e-mails would likely fan the controversy over Clinton’s use of a private e-mail system for official business.

On the heels of dismal China manufacturing data (worst PMI since March 2009) and mixed-to-weaker European data, US Manufacturing PMI printed a September preliminary 53.0 (flat from 53.0 in August and modestly better than expectations of 52.8). This is the equal lowest print since Oct 2013. Underlying components are mixed (factory prices dropped for first time in 3 years and new orders and employment slowed), but, confirming what Yellen told us last week (that the US economys is to fragile to handle a 25bps rate hike), Markit notes, "the sluggish growth, weaker forward-looking indicators and downturn in price pressures all point to the Fed holding off with rate hikes until next year."