Archive - Sep 24, 2015

Butter prices hit $3.10 per lb today in Chicago trading - a record high - as it appears the expectations of production increases after the EU milk quota system expired in March have proved "wildly optimistic." Of course, no one should complain at the rising cost of staples like butter (or toilet paper), just ask Jamie Dimon... "let them eat iPhones."

Oe of the most surprising developments in recent months has been the relative scarcity of any high-profile commodity blow-ups or trader snafus, despite the tumbling commodity prices. That changed today when Dutch grain-trading firm, Nidera BV (whose name is an acronym consisting of the countries in which it operates: Netherlands, India, Deutschland, England, Russia, Argentina) has suffered a crushing blow as a result of a "rogue trader" whose actions led to "significant losses" in the company's biofuels business. Nidera CEO Ton van der Laan said the grain-trading house has since exited the biofuels business and closed all the deals linked to the losses. "There is a significant loss."

Since Francois Hollande was elected (in May 2012), France has seen its joblessness ranks rise 36 of 39 months by a stunning 648,000. The lastest month added another 20,000 as it appears the brief respite in June and July is well and truly over. At 3.571 million, this is the highest number of jobseekers France has ever had...

In a startling turn of events, retired General John Allen will be stepping down as special envoy to the global coalition fighting ISIS and will be leaving government employment entirely. President Obama’s hand-picked choice to lead the U.S. in the international effort fighting the Islamic State will call it quits just as the harsh spotlight intensifies scrutiny over questionable decisions by the administration.

For USD investors, the collapse in German stocks has crushed returns to the lowest in 2 years. DAX's collapse this week leaves it closing at Black Monday lows, the lowest since Dec 2014. Perhaps most stunning is German stocks down over 20% since Q€ began...

Just three days ago after looking at the latest CAT retail sales, we asked in stunned amazement "What On Earth Is Going On With Caterpillar Sales?"  We now know the answer. 

"... this time we would see deeply negative interest rates in the US (and Europe). Sweden has led the way, dipping their toe below the water line with their current -0.35% policy rates but there will be more, much more along these lines. For if -0.35% is possible, why not - 3.5% or less? It goes without saying that deeply negative interest rates would be accompanied by a massively expanded QE4 in the US. The last seven years of exploding central bank balance sheets will seem like Bundesbank monetary austerity compared to what is to come."

And the regional Fed survey collapse goes on... Dallas, Richmond, New York, Philly, Chicago, and now Kansas City...

Armed U.S. Drones Alone Killed Twice As Many As Al Qaeda …

With the drop today, the S&P 500 is now down 10.5% from its May highs, re-entering the correction seen on Black Monday. This now leaves the key benchmark lower since QE3 ended and unchanged since May 2014.

It's time to trade in your Jag, Mercedes, BMW (and maybe your Prius, Volvo, Lexus, etc.) before the Days of Rage start. The resistance will take the form of subverting the signifiers of wealth that exemplify the few who have benefited so greatly while everyone else lost ground.

If it was Janet Yellen's intention when deciding not to hike rates to stop the surge of the USD against emerging market currencies in hopes of halting the relentless global capital outflows and the resulting Quantitative Tightning, to avoid a new global currency crisis... she failed.

It just keeps getting worse, and worse, and worse...

At 522,000 new homes sold (SAAR) in August - the highest since February 2008 - it is perhaps worth noting that this 'recovery' remains 60% below the prior bubble peak. Furthermore, this surge to new cycle highs comes in the same month as existing home sales plunged.