Archive - Sep 28, 2015

Unlike previous gold probe cases, this one will have major consequences. How do we know? Because just like in LIBOR-gate, just like in FX-gate, it is the biggest rat of all, Swiss megabank UBS, that is about to turn on its former criminal peers.  As Bloomberg reported earlier "UBS was granted conditional leniency in Swiss antitrust probe of possible manipulation of precious metal prices." Why would UBS do this? The same reason UBS did so on at least on two prior occasions: the regulators have definitive proof it is involved, and gave it the option to turn evidence and to rat out its cartel peers, or face even more massive financial penalties. UBS, as usual, choice the former.

We are a scant 40 years away from the futuristic world that science fiction author Philip K. Dick envisioned for Minority Report in which the government is all-seeing, all-knowing and all-powerful, and if you dare to step out of line, dark-clad police SWAT teams will crack a few skulls to bring the populace under control. Increasingly, the world around us resembles Dick’s dystopian police state in which the police combine widespread surveillance, behavior prediction technologies, data mining and precognitive technology to capture would-be criminals before they can do any damage. In other words, the government’s goal is to prevent crimes before they happen: precrime.

Dear VW TDI Owner...

Following on from a weak Europe and US session (despite late-day heroics in China last night), Fed confusion and commodity-complex counterparty-risk-concerns have sparked further turmoil across AsiaPac in the early going. Noble Group (asia's Glencore) is crashing, down 6.7% at the open. FX markets are seeing outflows send CNH below CNY for the first time since July and crush Thai Baht to its weakest since Jan 2007. Equity markets are in trouble with Aussie stocks hammered (driven by a plunge in Miners) and Nikkei 225 down 1000 points from Friday's highs. Asia credit markets have spiked to 2-year wides. China injected another CNY40bn and strengthened the fix (by the most since 9/2) for 2nd day in a row.

The U.S. dollar is looking good worldwide and, in fact, so is gold - it’s just that, at present, the dollar is in the number one spot. But, unlike gold, the dollar is at risk. U.S. debt has placed it in a precarious position from which it will most certainly fall. The dollar is not a truly strong currency; it is essentially, “the best looking horse in the glue factory.” It will be the last to go, but it will indeed go. We may have a bit of time before that happens. Whether it’s measured in months or years, we can’t be certain. A gold mania is not imminent, but we believe it is inevitable.

The story of the mysterious Nazi train was all but forgotten until earlier today, when AFP reported that while the Polish propaganda machine has been busy to neutralize any speculation that such a train may indeed exist (or have been discovered) even though it explicitly admitted as much just a month ago, Poland's army confirmed that it has begun inspecting the southwestern area where two men claim to have discovered an armoured Nazi gold train buried at the end of World War II.

The solution is not to let politicians redistribute the wealth from the rich to the poor. Crony capitalism must be replaced by true free market capitalism, practiced with integrity, fairness, principled conduct, intelligence, and high moral standards. Profits generated by corporations are not evil, but seeking profits at any cost to society is reckless, shortsighted and immoral. Capitalism without capital is destined for failure. When corporate CEOs, Wall Street bankers, and shady billionaires exercise undue influence over the financial, political and judicial systems, their short-term quarterly profit mindset and voracious appetite for riches override the best interests of the people and create a sick, warped, repressive society. Today our system is in the grasp of psychopaths whose hubris and myopic focus on enriching themselves will ultimately be their downfall.

To the extent the memory of Fukushima had faded over the last several years, the "fallout" (no pun intended) from the nuclear-like blast that tore through an industrial complex at the Chinese port of Tianjin last month served to remind the world of how far-reaching and unpredictable the consequences can be when disaster strikes at a site that houses potentially toxic materials. Well, don’t look now but experts now say the No. 2 reactor at Fukushima may have suffered a complete meltdown.

After a 90-minute meeting, Presidents Obama and Putin emerge from the mudslinging apparently agreeing to disagree on everything. Putin blames US - specifically Obama - for "relations being so bad," adding trhat sanctions are not an "efficient" policy tool, and hopes US can play an active role in fighting ISIS with cooperation. Given the image below, we can only imagine how tense the meeting was...

Since the 2008 crash there has been much talk about how the fundamentals have not been dealt with and the fact that the can has only been kicked down the road. Political mavericks and commentators such as Ron Paul have frequently pointed out that nothing has really changed and that we are heading for even bigger disasters ahead if we continue to play ostrich... The truth is that we never left the economic downturn – we are currently in a period of manipulation that’s sole purpose is to mask the fact that there has not been a boom (or recovery if you like) to trigger the next bust.

No, it's not New York, or London; Moscow, Geneva, Vancouver or even D.C. According to Clarmond House, the most important foreign city - the one which China is making the center of its largest offshore infrastructure project - is the tiny port of Gwadar (population 85,000) which Pakistan purchased from Oman in 1958 for $1 million, and which has become the critical hub of China's future energy policy.

"Did Charlie Rose look like a f##king idiot last night on 60-Minutes, or what...?"

IPOs have underperformed the S&P 500 by a stunning 17% year-to-date, extending losses today to 26% year-to-date. With private valuations still sky high in the minds of their VC 'guru' investors, we suspect the fact that this year is now the worst year for IPOs since 2008 will begin to raise doubts about even the most unicorn-y opportunity.

What has always separated successful professional gamblers from the "weekend sucker" is knowing when to step away from the table.