Archive - Sep 30, 2015

As the regional proxy wars heat up, Saudi Arabia seizes an Iranian "fishing" vessel that, in addition to fishing poles and tackle boxes, also happened to be carrying missile launchers, anti-tank weapons, and firing guiding systems likely bound for the Houthis in Yemen.

I went to the Tesla Factory last night to watch Elon Musk roll out his latest product - the Model X. Here's what I saw and why I shorted the stock.

We know that the corporate credit bubble has been highly disturbed, but the action in mREIT’s these past few days more than suggests that risk perceptions systemically are being affected. That all ties back to funding considerations, as the collapse in REM may be investors selling ahead of liquidity problems that are still building and expanding. In other words, there may be a growing sense (not unlike inflation breakevens) that the corporate pricing problems are going to break out in short order beyond just junk (and beyond what already has).

Last week, following the shocking news that House Speaker John Boehner had resigned, we analyzed the "flowchart" of next steps for both the US government shutdown and the debt ceiling showdown. The most urgent one, that of the imminent shutdown or passage of a continuing resolution, was as follows:  "Boehner will move to advance a "clean" CR -- with the help of Democrats -- before the new fiscal year starts on Thursday." And he will succeed. This is precisely what happened moments ago when following a 277-151 vote in the House, Congress sent legislation to Obama to prevent a government shutdown and will keep federal agencies funded through Dec. 11.

With the fiscal picture looking increasingly precarious and confidence collapsing, we bring you the latest from the frontlines of the EM meltdown. In short, Brazil is falling apart at the seams. Now, who wants tickets to the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio?

If you want to understand why Rome declined, look no further than the moral decay of ruling Elites.

Evercore ISI, the company which unlike the ISM, conducts business surveys that are not only credible, but actionable, just looked at the latest data, and had the following observation: "Evercore ISI trucking survey is down a big -1.3 to 51.0 versus its peak last year of 65.4. The tech survey slipped below 50.0. If they don't stop declining soon, we will become more worried about recession risk."

Courtesy of JPM we find something curious: it is no longer the Fed, nor its capital markets proxy, Citadel, nor even the banks or hedge funds that are the primary sellers of volatility. It is retail investors themselves!

There's your problem, right there...

While the company's stock price may have rebounded strong today after tumbling by 25% in the past few days, hoping the worst is behind it the company's Credit Default Swaps sing a different tune, and as of moments ago, with the CDS spread blowing out to 440 bps, suggested Valeant default risk is now a whopping 33%.

As we reported earlier this morning, at the “request” of Vladimir Putin, Russian lawmakers have approved airstrikes in Syria and unlike the rather deliberate pace of Washington’s efforts to rout ISIS, Moscow doesn’t appear to be wasting any time.

According to ADP, for the first time this decade, the US hasn't created a single manufacturing job for the entire year. In fact, it has lost some 6,600 jobs. But don't worry: we hear "economic recoveries" driven by hiring of minimum wage retailers, low-wage teachers, and of course, waiters and bartenders, are all the rage in this business cycle.

With Japan's economy already sliding into its 5th recession of the past decade, once pensioners open their retirement statements in a few weeks and find a 15% plunge in their purchasing power, Japan can skip recession and proceed straight to a consumer-driven recession. But wait, there's more: because if pensioners are angry now, wait until they learn that they have lost everything, after buying all those junk bonds that Carl Icahn is now actively selling with both hands and feet, because: JAPAN PENSION FUND TO INVEST IN JUNK BONDS, NIKKEI SAYS. And just like that, with or without Krugman's active economic advice, Japan's fate is sealed because much to Japan's dismay, "junk" bonds are called that for a reason.