Archive - Sep 2015

Clearly the title to this piece will be viewed as controversial, if not entirely heretical, by many readers. However, the facts (and more importantly) the economic principles here are unequivocal. “Bigger” is not better.

From Dallas to Philly, and from New York to Richmond, the regional Fed surveys have been ugly. So not to be outdone, Chicago Fed's National Activity Index collapsed from +0.34 to -0.41 (dramatically missing expectations of 0.24) and testing 6-month lows. The CFNAI has now missed expectations for 7 of the last 9 months. The reading below zero indicates below-trend growth in the national economy and easing pressures of future inflation.

Durable Goods New Orders dropped 2.0% MoM in August, the biggest drop since March (but modestly beat expectations of a 2.3% drop). This extends the ex-transports YoY losing streak to 7 months of declines flashing recessionary warnings left and right. Perhaps most notable is the 0.2% drop in Capital goods Shipments (dramatically missing expectations of a 0.5% rise) and the weakest print since May.

Another rip sold. Dow futures are down over 140 points in the pre-open (as it appears Cramer's pajama-wearers are derisking again). Following the 4th day of Yuan weakness, EUR-based carry trades continue their unwind and that pressure is driving USD Index notably lower, bond yields gapping lower, and commodities tumbling... except gold

Martin Winterkorn, engulfed by a diesel-emissions scandal at Volkswagen AG, amassed a $32 million pension before stepping down Wednesday, and may reap millions more in severance depending on how the supervisory board classifies his exit.

The global race to the bottom continued on Thursday as Norway and Taiwan moved to cut rates sending NOK plunging to its weakest level against the dollar in 13 years and pressing Tawain dollar forwards to six year lows. 

Palladium surged 6% yesterday. The move appeared to be a short squeeze and may be the precursor for the long awaited move higher in gold and silver.

• Stocks slip for fifth straight day, euro holds steady (Reuters)
• VW recall letters in April warned of an emissions glitch (Reuters)
• VW Cheating Scandal Threatens to Ensnare BMW as Probe Widens (BBG)
• Pope Francis set to address fractious U.S. Congress (Reuters)
• Norway Cuts Rates to Record Low to Save Economy From Oil Slump (BBG)
• Taiwan Cuts Rate for First Time Since 2009 as Exports Falter (BBG)
• Janet Yellen to speak at UMass on Thursday (Daily Collegian)
• A Big Bet That China’s Currency Will Devalue Further (NYT)
• Debt Relief for Students Snarls Market for Their Loans (WSJ)

European equity have been weighed on by BMW after reports in German press that the Co.'s emission tests for their X3 model could show worse results than that of the Volkswagen Passat. The Norwegian and Taiwanese central banks have both cut interest rates, taking the number of central banks to cut rates this year to 40. Today's highlights include US weekly jobs data and durable goods orders as well as comments from ECB's Praet and Fed's Yellen. Of note US data, including jobless claims, durables and home sales will be delayed today & not released to newswires 1st due to Pope's visit

As Bloomberg reports, "President Vladimir Putin, determined to strengthen Russia’s only military outpost in the Middle East, is preparing to launch unilateral airstrikes against Islamic State from inside Syria if the U.S. rejects his proposal to join forces, two people familiar with the matter said."

As far as we can tell, not only has democracy departed the Western world, but also compassion, empathy for others, morality, integrity, respect for truth, justice, faithfulness, and self-respect. Western civilization has become a hollow shell. There is nothing left but greed and coercion and the threat of coercion.In the Western World the aristocracy of wealth is being re-established.

With the new car bubble peaking, and the world's automakers having ramped up production across the globe after seeing Fed-driven signals that all is well and all is going to get better, the slowdown in China already has many hitting the panic button (with production plunging, capacity utilization tumbling, and workweeks tumbling). With this week's 'exogenous' diesel-defect 'event', the inventory-problem that US automakers are facing is nothing compared to the potentially catacylysmic wave of deflationary pricing (and deflationary lack of demand for raw materials) that VW faces with its record inventory.

AsiaPac stocks are broadly lower at the open, folowing US' lead as after being closed for 3 days, Japanese stocks open and catch down to global weakness with Nikkei 225 at 2-week lows. It appears it is time to "get back to work Mr.Kuroda," as stocks are below Black Monday's lows. Following last night's dismal data, China credit risk rose once again to new 2 year highs. Once again, industrial metals are under pressure with iron ore, copper, and aluminum all lower (following "peak steel" comments). After 3 days of weakening (and Xi's comments that China won't weaken), PBOC weakend the Yuan fix again, pushing the offshore-onshore spread to 2-week wides (over 500 pips apart).

The best position for a tyrant or tyrants to be in, at least while consolidating power, is tyranny by proxy. That is to say, the most dangerous tyrants are those the people do not recognize: the tyrants who hide behind scarecrows and puppets and faceless organizations. The worst position for the common citizen to be in is a false sense of security and understanding, operating on the assumption that tyrants do not exist or that potential tyrants are really just greedy fools acting independently from one another. Being the clever tyrants that they are, the members of the central banking cult hope you are too stupid or too biased to grasp the concept of conspiracy. If you cannot identify the agenda, you can do nothing to interfere with the agenda.

Anyone who looks at this index chart and thinks we are at the cusp of anything resembling a bull market is clinically insane and should be locked up for the protection of themselves and society at large.