Archive - Sep 2015

"It’s like a pig on LSD. You don’t know which way it’s going to run"...

• Global Stocks Steady Despite China Slowdown (WSJ)
• European Recovery Saves Markets From China Gloom as Stocks Rally (BBG)
• Pope starts U.S. trip with tone of conciliation (Reuters)
• FBI Said to Recover Personal E-Mails From Hillary Clinton Server (BBG)
• Volkswagen chief faces grilling by board over diesel scandal (Reuters)
• 'European Detroit' Fear Grips VW Company Town as Scandal Widens (BBG)
• Berlin finds itself caught up in Volkswagen scandal (FT)

News That Matters

In the aftermath of Yellen's "hung hold" decision, which left the world confused if the economy is getting better or worse, global equity markets proceeded to take both Europe and Japan to task, trying to push one of the last two remaining central banks to boost their QE. And until this morning it was unclear who was going to take the lead. Then, following comments over the past several hours from ECB governing council members Ewald Nowotny and Bostjan Jazbec, as well as a well-directed leak via Market News, we got confirmation that anyone hoping for Mario Draghi to blink first may be disappointed this time around.

In many ways, the overnight market has so far been a reversal of yesterday, when a stable Asia session (with China stocks rising) gave way to a European tumble which in turn dragged the US lower.

Following the biggest plunge in biotech stocks in 2015 - some have speculated that the real goal of Shkreli's actions was to profit by shorting the biotech sector ahead of the selling which his action would have unleashed - and an epic public outcry against the diminutive "hedge fund" manager, NBC reported moments ago that "the pharmaceutical company boss under fire for increasing the price of the drug Daraprim by more than 5,000 percent said Tuesday he will lower the cost of the life-saving medication."

“Unless we get up off our fat surpluses and recognize that television in the main is being used to distract, delude, amuse, and insulate us, then television and those who finance it, those who look at it, and those who work at it, may see a totally different picture too late.”

The following censorship instructions, issued to the media by government authorities, have been leaked and distributed online. As China Digital Times reports, propaganda directives issued by the Xinhua News Agency and the Central Propaganda Department show that Chinese media are being instructed to "properly interpret economic data," and "promote discourse on China’s bright economic future."

"Softer growth prospects for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, and a slow recovery in the major industrial economies, will combine to push growth in developing Asia for 2015 and 2016 below previous projections."

US equity futures plunged (Dow -140)

Following Xi's earlier speech reassuring Yellen that the "Chinese economy is stable," and the Yuan tumbled 0.25% against the USD ahead of the data. China's Flash Manufacturing PMI printed a disastrous 47.0 (against expectations of a slight rise to 47.5 from August's 47.3). This is the lowest print since March 2009. Caixin Group confidently suggests this utterly crap data is the bottom and that "patience may be needed for policies designed to promote stabilization to demonstrate their effectiveness.”

One of the main data points that pundits and politicians who claim there is an “economy recovery” point to is jobs created. Please tell me, what good is a job if it can’t earn you a roof over your head?

Welcome to the Oligarch Recovery.

“American exceptionalism has to be driven out of our curriculums. We’re not under threat. We are the threat.”

TSA agents don’t get enough credit. They aren’t just experts at sexually molesting airport passengers, although they are very good at that. They have also become well known for outright theft.

Ironically, As Xi says "won't devalue the Yuan," The PBOC devalues the Yuan for the 3rd day to the weakest in a month...

Following last night's ADB China growth downgrade, and warnings from The IMF's Lagarde that a "China slowdown is a major risk to the global economy," the weakness seen in Europe and US is continuing across AsiaPac tonight ahead of China's much-watched PMI data (though we are not sure why - since no "bad news" excuse is needed to enable super-easy policy). With Xi in the US, one would imagine a 'beat' for PMI will be engineered, although industrial metals are extending their losses. Credit markets area nxious with Malaysia CDS at 2011 highs, Philippines highest since 2014, and China back on the rise. Xi begins his speech tonight reminding The Fed that China "is the biggest developing nation in the world," and its economy "is stable" despite Yellen's fears.

After 35 years of falling and now zero rates, the direction is only up for the cost of money, as is the cost to service debt, along with the burden to those who are most indebted (i.e. the U.S.). What should no longer be unthinkable is that the clock is ticking on America’s status as the holder of the reserve currency. If you still doubt this proposition, consider that China is in the process of setting up a third benchmark for oil, along with Brent and West Texas Intermediate, for trading oil futures contracts. And unlike the existing contracts, these will be traded in Renminbi. Who needs the dollar?