Archive - Sep 2015

When bailout-darling GM 'fessed up to an intentional ignition-switch defect, tied to at least 174 deaths, The Justice Department fined them $900 million (and no employees faced criminal charges). So, in this consequence-less world in which we live, when Volkswagen admits to literally cheating emissions-standards tests, it faces up to $18 billion in fines from The EPA, one has to wonder whether "we" have our priorities right?

If you were trying to put together a global all-star team of the most authoritarian, human rights abusing nations on earth, not only would Saudi Arabia be at the top of the list, it would be captain of the squad. In a move as embarrassing, laughable and tragic as Barack Obama receiving the Nobel Peace Prize just as he was about to embark upon several overseas wars and drone countless civilians to death without due process, the United Nations has, remarkably, named Saudi Arabia head of it’s human rights panel.

When The Fed's own cheerleader-in-chief (see October 2014) slams you for cheerleading, you know it's gone too far. In a stunning 30 second clip on CNBC this morning, St.Louis Fed head Jim Bullard sent a message to "your friend Cramer", saying "The Fed cannot permanently raise stock prices," adding, rather astonishingly to the anchors, "to have [Cramer] cheerleading for lower rates 24 hours a day is unsavory."

It appears Jim Bullard's words (since his deeds are of no use as he is not a voter) were just enough to reassure the world that Yellen was "just kidding" about the whole global growth worries and market turmoil and is quiote ready to raise rates as soon as possible (even if FF futures say "nein"). EURUSD is now down over 250 pips since Friday highs, battered back near a 1.1100 handle...

The stock market is rapidly running out of props.

Update: Rumor confirmed- *PANDORA WINS PRELIMINARY CRB DECISION, SUSQUEHANNA’S CLAPS SAYS (market disappointed)

Pandora is now up 11% on the day after twice being halted (on absolutely no news)...

This long-term erosion of earned income and household finances does not enable "growth" that is based on rising spending and borrowing. If these are no longer possible, the status quo has no Plan B.

After an almost incessant rise since January, Existing Home Sales in August plunged 4.8% (the most since January and dramatically worse than the -1.65 drop expected). This is the 3rd biggest monthly collapse since the financial crisis. While the Northeast saw no change, The West (down 7.8% MoM) and South (down 6.6% MoM) saw the biggest plunges in sales as median home prices fell for the 2nd month in a row. It appears the one brightspot in the economy (according to mainstream media) has burned out as affordability and excitability come to a turning point.

The Saudis must alter course, seek a consensus on prices and volumes with their fellow OPEC members, coordinate with Russia, and reduce output from 2015’s average (approx. 10.5 mmbbl/d) to signal their commitment. Why? Crude prices staying lower for longer will rapidly devastate the Saudi economy.

The chart below shows the annual change in 12-month forward S&P 500 EPS expectations. This series is based on forward consensus expectations and therefore excludes many of the write-downs and exceptional items that are currently pushing down actual reported profits. It is more akin to operational profits and has never been this negative outside of a recession!

"The market is now observing itself from another angle as an observer of the observer of the observers."

Having no cost to money is the economic equivalent of no intelligent laws in society. The equivalent of using our money but having a baseline of zero for the benefit produced with that money. The results are what you would expect, the wild west, One might say, Financial Anarchy.

News That Matters

In the week following the Fed's admission it is not only market-driven but now has a 4th mandate, which is to respond to China's hard landing on a day-to-day basis, US macro events mecrifully slow down to give everyone a chance to digest what the Fed just did. Here are the highlights.

· Comments from Fed speakers could see additional focus this week given the dovish rhetoric seen at last week’s press conference, with Yellen, Lockhart, Bullard and George all scheduled to speak.

· Outside of America, Europe sees the German IFO survey release, while markets will also look towards the release of China’s Caixin PMI.