Archive - Sep 2015

To comply with the 2005 Real ID Act, which the U.S. government has been slowly implementing for the past decade, citizens in a number of different U.S. states will now be forced to obtain a passport if they want to board an airplane - even for domestic flights.

Presenting Exhibit A: Goldman's latest YTD performance breakdown by strategy basket. It reveals is that far from suffering even the most modest correction, the "Hedge Fund Hotel" strategy (aka the most concentrated holdings), is massively outperforming not only the broader market, but has returned double the second most profitable strategy - investing in companies with high revenue growth. In a world in which the Fed just saw its credibility crushed, expect this to change shortly.

Because it's fair...

"A joke" and "far from impressive", both descriptions give you a sense of the frustration being felt by Saxo Bank's Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen who analyses the decision not to raise rates in this brief clip. The Fed "missed opportunity to raise rates for first time since 2006" according to Steen who has been consistently arguing against what he calls the Fed's  "pretend-and-extend" culture. Volatility and uncertainty will remain high and there's now little chance of a rate rise this year suggests Steen (expecting a big rally in gold), given that EM economies and China are unlikely to emerge from the doldrums in the near-term.

As WSJ reports, "the FBI has opened an investigation into allegations of money-laundering related to a Malaysian state investment fund, a person familiar with the matter said. The scope of the investigation wasn’t known. It is the latest in a series of international investigations related to the fund that have been revealed in the past several weeks."

Each of the 3 stages needed to move to a sustainable price have to be given time to play out. The rig count story has been told with a brutally fast 60 percent drop. Meaningful production declines are on. Next will be inventory draw downs; in that order. As to the latter, we’re just beginning to see the effects of the rig count. Large drawdowns will be here sooner than predicted.

"I would not advocate that we put a Muslim in charge of this nation. I absolutely would not agree with that."

We’re all Dr. Evil today, thinking that one million dollars is a lot of money, or that one second is a short period of time, or that we are individually smart or capable in a systemically interesting way. We use our small-number brains to make sense of an increasingly large-number investment world, and as a result both our market fears and our market dreams are increasingly out of touch with reality.

In a move 'spun' by John Kerry as "keeping with America’s best tradition as a land of second chances and a beacon of hope," NYTimes reports the Obama administration is willing to accept to 100,000 annually in 2017, a significant increase over the current worldwide cap of 70,000. Kerry further added that the US would explore ways to increase the limit beyond 100,000 in future years while carrying out background checks to ensure that the refugees have not been infiltrated by terrorists.

Greece went to the polls on Sunday with a choice that really wasn't a choice and even as Alexis Tsipras looks set to prevail the most shocking electoral outcome is this: neo-Nazi Golden Dawn is set to come in third and garnered the most support of any party among Greece's unemployed.

One can’t help being left slack-jawed witnessing that the Fed has just publicly inserted itself into geopolitics via its monetary policy as de facto first responder/savior of all economies. Even if it puts U.S. savers, retirees, along with its economy in the back seat.

Q: What is your own view of the appropriate liftoff date?

A: Our own answer to that question has long been 2016. In fact, our own view is similar to that of Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, who recently shifted his call from early 2016 to mid-2016.... At this point, our “GSFCI Taylor rule” suggests that the FOMC should be trying to ease rather than tighten financial conditions. Our own view in terms of optimal policy is quite strongly in favor of waiting well into 2016.

Why Coca-Cola's business model is sexier than Heidi Klum in a bikini!

With both Russia and Iran seemingly prepared to do what's necessary to ensure Bashar al-Assad isn't toppled in Syria, John Kerry admits that the US strategy of brining about regime change in Damascus is now in serious jeopardy. Speaking from London on Saturday, Kerry attempted to hang on to the “Assad must go” narrative, but in what might fairly be described as the most conciliatory language yet, Washington’s top diplomat essentially admitted that the timetable for Assad’s exit is now completely indeterminate. Meanwhile, Moscow and Tehran are set to hash out Syria's future seemingly without any input from the Americans.