Archive - Sep 2015

While many continue to debate if what with every passing day increasingly looks like a global recession, one from which the US will not decouple no matter how many "virtual portfolio" asset managers claim the contrary, there are those who without much fanfare are already taking proactive steps to avoid the kind of fallout that the markets have hinted in the past month of trading, is inevitable. Some such as Calstrs: the nation's second largest pension fund with $191 billion in assets (smaller only than Calpers), which as the WSJ reports is "considering a significant shift away from some stocks and bonds amid turbulent markets world-wide."  According to the WSJ, it will move as much as $20 billion, or 12% of the fund’s stock  portfolio, into other assets, including Treasurys.

There's a debate in professional circles as to whether the stock market is in a correction or a bear market. It makes a difference...

Lies, Damn Lies, and Political speech... It appears little white lies matter.. and so do blatant black ones...

Dear Investors, The last few weeks have exposed that our equity markets are not as liquid as we have long claimed mainly due to market fragmentation and the lack of diverse liquidity pools...

"Artemis Vega Fund LP and associated institutional managed accounts gained approximately +15.49% gross of fees on September 1, 2015 on a day the S&P 500 index lost -2.96%. Please note this performance was for the day....  Our models currently register a 30% probability the VIX will re-test highs above 40 in the next 21 days."

"Our Asia strategy team points out news reports that some Chinese government agencies are planning on the assumption of USD/CNY at 8.0 for the end of 2016. This would be a 20% devaluation back to 2006 levels. Considering the major impact of the 3% devaluation this August, the implications for EEMEA would be profound. Asset prices of commodity exporters would again suffer the most, as they have done since 10 August. Potentially even more damaging would be risk of financial contagion throughout the global banking system."

Economies around the world are in shambles. All central banks and banking systems are overextended. So too are political entities. The geo-political situation is worse than any time since World War II. The nature of politics is to kick the can down the road. We are nearly out of road. The scam is likely at its end regardless of what is tried. The piper is coming for what he is owed.

The ruling could completely alter the $51 billion company’s business model and set precedence for other startups that rely on independent contractors.

Update: even the rating agencies finally noticed - S&P: GLENCORE TO BBB/NEGATIVE FROM BBB/STABLE

Earlier today, Glencore stock plunged to a new all time low, after crashing nearly 20% in the past two days as investors with rose-colored glasses finally appreciate the dire reality facing the global miner. However, the best way to trade the beginning of the end for Glencore is not using stock at all.

Given “highly accommodative” policy almost everywhere, and so little gained; it isn’t a good sign particularly after eight incessant years of it and the lagged effects from the renewed “dollar” wave still to be withstood. Every year was supposed to be “the year”, but 2015 was a surefire lock according to orthodox versions. The real difference, unlike past years, is that everything is going wrong so far just as predicted by the “strong dollar.”

Then - "We will not have any more crashes in our time." – John Maynard Keynes (1927)

Now - "Ambarella, GoPro & FitBit are headed higher" - Jim Cramer (7/22)

What does that mean? Huh? "China is here." I don't even know what the hell that means…-Jack Burton

With all eyes glued to Friday's payrolls report, we thought it worth reiterating some 'facts' about US employment data. As ECRI notes, the sustained decline in the official jobless rate – now approaching the Fed’s estimate of “full employment” – is a misleading indicator of labor market slack. The data shows that the so-called jobs recovery has been spearheaded by cheap labor, with job gains going disproportionately to the least educated — and lowest-paid — workers. This is scarcely a good basis for resilient consumer spending driven by “solid” job growth that the consensus – including the Fed – is banking on.