Archive - 2015

But the oil-price crash was supposed to goose consumer spending.

UPDATE: "Bad News" bounce breaks bad...

Unlike yesterday - where bad news was bad news - today terrible macro data news is awesome news... Thanks to a liftathon in USDJPY breaking back over 119.00, the S&P has ripped 10 points since ISM, PMI, Factory Orders data disappointed.

Following a disastrous Manufacturing ISM report last week, today it was the turn for its Service cousin to report. And while it wasn't quite the abysmal faceplant that some had expected the seasonally adjusted number to be, printing at 56.2, down from 59.3 and far below the 58.0 expected (but just above the lowest estimate of 56.0), it still was the biggest miss to expectations since September 2013, and the lowest print since June.  And while the details were just as atrocious, with every single ISM component declining in December - something that has not happened since the Great Financial Crisis - a report which literallyh said "Obamacare and wages are still the biggest enemies to profitability", all eyes are focused not so much on the tumble in Business Activity and New Orders, but on Prices, which at 49.5, posted their first contraction since September 2009.

For the 4th month in a row, US Factory Orders have fallen MoM. November's 0.7% drop is worse than the 0.5% decline expected and leads to the biggest yearly drop since March 2013. Capital Goods New Orders tumbled 0.8% as did non-defense capital goods shipments (down 0.9%). Having risen for 3 months, November saw a 8.2% plunge in defense new orders but it was the across-the-board slide in consumer goods orders and shipments, IT new orders, and Computers & Electronics (despite the massive tax cut from low oil prices!!??) that weighed heavily.

Markit's US Services PMI missed expectations of 53.7, priting at 53.3, its lowest since Feb 2014 (mid Polar Vortex). From record highs in June, PMI has plunged non-stop for six months leaving Markit noting Q4 growth is looking more like 2.0% than the 5.0% exuberance in Q3.

Citing "softening market conditions influenced by oil," US Steel has issued lay-off warnings to 756 workers in the US... Layoffs will begin in early March as both Ohio and Texas plants will be idled.

It appears "the trend is your friend" is only a mantra that 'speculators' are willing to follow for stocks as the incessant rally in US Treasury bonds has led traders to position for higher rates at the largest level since May 2010 (more short squeeze, rates to 1%-handle ammunition?). However, the surging stock market has merely encouraged more to follow that trend as S&P 500 specs are the 'longest' since July 2013. Just as we noted previously, this is deja vu all over again for hedgie positioning into 2014 (but even more extreme)... and that was a painful year for most.

Will there be capitulation in Oil?

A day after the funeral of a colleague killed in an ambush last month fueled tensions between the force and the city's mayor and led to another day when thousands of policemen turned their back on New York mayor Bill de Blasio, two NYC policemen were shot and wounded on Monday night, officials said,  According to Reuters, the officers, part of a plainclothes unit, were shot outside a Chinese restaurant in the Bronx district as they tracked two suspects to an armed robbery, New York Police Commissioner William Bratton told a news conference early on Tuesday. The officers were transported to St. Barnabas Hospital and were expected to survive. Both were listed in stable condition: one, aged 30, was shot in the arm and lower back. The second man, aged 38, had chest and arm wounds. A massive manhunt is taking place for the suspects, described as 25- to 30-year-old Hispanic males, who are still at large. The organization COP SHOT (Citizens Outraged at Police Being Shot) is offering a $10,000 cash reward for information leading to their arrest and conviction.

• Average 10-year yield of U.S., Japan and Germany dropped below 1% for the first time ever: Free Money in Bond Markets Shows Global Economy Still Struggling (BBG)
• Brent falls below $52 as oil hits new five and a half year lows (Reuters)
• China Fast-Tracks $1 Trillion in Projects to Spur Growth (BBG)
• Saudi Arabia Raises Price of Main Oil Grade for Asian Buyers (BBG)
• Oilfield Writedowns Loom as Crude Slump Guts Drilling Values (BBG)
• Biggest Oil-Rig Drop Since 2009 Spells Tough Year Ahead (BBG)
• CIA says its inspector general is resigning at end of month (Reuters)
• Pipeline IPOs Climb on Demand for Returns Immune to Oil (BBG)
• Natural Gas No Savior for Investors Seeking Oil Refuge (BBG)
• Euro zone economy ended 2014 in poor shape (Reuters)

Same slide, different day, as the crude crash continues, with both WTI and Brent tumbling to multi-year highs, below $49 and $52 respectively. This happened despite the news overnight that China is accelerating 300 infrastructure projects valued at 7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) this year, suggesting that China will focus more on fiscal policy than monetary easing, which in turn led to much confusion in the SHCOMP, which fluctuated up and down for the day several times before finally closing unchanged. There was no confusion about the stops slamming USDJPY, and its Nikkei225 derivative which tumbled 3%, sending Japanese Treasury yields to fresh record lows. Record low yields were also seen in Germany, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, France (and many other places), which in turn forced the US 10 Year to finally dip back under 2.00%. In fact, taken together, the average 10Y bond yield of the U.S., Japan and Germany has dropped below 1% for the first time ever, according to Citi.

At the start of the New Year, there are increasing signs that the recovery seen in property prices in many cities in western countries -- namely New York and other U.S. cities, and Dublin, London and other UK cities -- is beginning to peter out ... 

"Oil is incredibly important right now. If oil falls to around $40 a barrel then I think the yield on ten year treasury note is going to 1%. I hope it does not go to $40 because then something is very, very wrong with the world, not just the economy. The geopolitical consequences could be – to put it bluntly – terrifying."

In 1991, the Cold War between the US and the USSR ended, as, economically, the USSR had run its course. Since that time, the US has had the ability to back off on armaments and to strengthen itself economically, to become even more powerful as the world’s present empire. But, of course, that’s not what they did. Instead, they went headlong in the direction of becoming a more highly armed, more fascist state. Along the way, they became extremely reckless with their economy, following a Keynesian model that contributed to the greatest debt bubble the world has ever seen.