Archive - 2015

As the status-quo-sponsored mainstream media continues to desperately try to point out all of Donald Trump's flaws (and apparently wash over all of Hillary's), the actual electorate appears unimpressed by their efforts. Despite "Schlong-gate" (more press), the latest poll from CNN/ORN shows The Donald adding 3 more points since the last debate to 39% of Republicans, with Ted Cruz a distant second at 18%.

When the word 'bloodbath' just doesn't quite sum it up, distressed debt investors's bonuses have been obliterated in 2015. Despite seeking safety away from oil and coal companies, one trader exclaimed, the pain is "like cancer, it's spreading throughout the body," as every industry from materials to retail and industrials has collapsed... though, as Bloomberg reports, some investments stood out in their awfulness.

After a surprise surge last week, the US oil rig count resumed its decline this week (dropping 3 to 538). Gas rigs dropped 6 in the last week (as the Nattie glut continues). Crude oil prices fell very modestly on the rig count data (having run stops to FOMC day gaps).

We exposed the ugly truth below the surface of Santa's rally yesterday, but today it just got even more fantastical...

At the end of the day, the Fed led central bank money printing spree of the past two decades resulted in what is functionally a massive dollar short. Once the Fed stopped expanding its balance sheet when QE officially ended in October 2014, it was only a matter of time before all the “near-dollars” of the world would come under enormous downward pressure in the FX markets. Our Keynesian witch doctors believe that sinking currencies are a wonderful thing, of course. They claim making your country poorer is a good way to stimulate export growth and a virtuous cycle of spending and growth. But there is another thing. It is also a good way to generate capital flight and the ensuing chaos that creates.

Now what?

Good things are coming for beaten-down commodity investors in 2016...

Maybe it's the "Ex-FX" lack of transparency? Maybe it's the 'taking profits' on the year's biggest winners? Or maybe it's the 32x P/E multiple.. But Nike has gone from hero to zero overnight...

We need a new system. A new system is self-organizing before our eyes. We just have to stop obstructing its rise and start facilitating its expansion in self-evident ways. The model of expecting global corporations and Big Government to solve the scarcity of paid work is broken.

According to the just revealed latest forecast by the most accurate forecaster of GDP, the Atlanta Fed, with all the latest data in hand, the US economy is now estimated to have grown just 1.3% in the fourth quarter, down from 1.9%, and the lowest print it has had throughout the forecast period which started in late October.

An analysis of terror attacks since 2002 suggests U.S. efforts to combat terrorism - i.e., the "War on Terror" - have led to a dramatic increase in death and suffering from terrorism.

Not only were there downward revisions between the November and October "government data", but as the chart below shows, over the past 5 months the data has been consistently "revised lower" with every incremental release.

API's reported huge 3.6mm drawdown in total crude inventories (against expectations of a 2.33mm build) was just the catalyst to send crude prices soaring overnight and DOE just confirmed it with a massive 5.88mm draw - the largest in over 6 months. However, initial exuberance was tempered as Cushing saw a 2.045mm build - its 7th week in a row. And finally, crude production rose for the second week in a row.

Following Existing Home Sales sudden collapse catch down to reality (blamed on new paperwork timing), New Home Sales in November printed 490k SAAR (missing expectations of 505k). Historical revisions enabled a 'rise' MoM but we note that new home sales in The Northeast crashed 28.6% (after a huge spike in October) while The West saw sales rise 20.5% MoM (seriously!!??).

Having seen long-bond yields collapse on heavy volume immediately after The Fed's decision last week to hike rates, it appears the "policy error" message was just too much to bear for an un-manipulated market. The last 2 days have seen a very light volume 13bps surge in 30Y yields, now back above the Maginot Line of 3.00% - erasing any "policy error" questions post-Fed... for now.