Archive - 2015

From $35.35 lows (in Feb contract) on Monday, WTI crude has extended its overnight post-API inventory gains, pressing up to $37, running the stops to last week's FOMC meeting moves. Let's just hope DOE does not disappoint (and don't forget to look at Cuhsing storage getting full).

The silver market has experienced serious changes which precious metal investors need to be aware.

"To make a total payment will be almost impossible. If a partial payment is made: what bonds should we pay? It is an assessment that is being done. It is highly unlikely that there will not be default, in whole or partially."

If it wasn't for America's war machine, the economy would be deep in recession. Defense spending (aircraft and parts) soared 148% in the last 3 months - biggest such rise since 2007 managing to squeeze Durable Goods Orders overall to unchanged in Nov (vs -0.6% exp). That's the good news. Everywhere else you look bad. Core Capex fell 1.93% YoY - the 10th consecutive YoY drop - something not seen before outside of recession.

The end result was that in November personal savings was $748 billion, a $9.4 billion decline from the $757 billion a month ago, which translates into a 5.5% savings rate, down from last month's 5.6%, however well above the average rate seen over the past 12 months as consumers continue to be unwilling to dip into their savings despite the so-called "gas" tax cut.

An index that tracks the world’s largest stocks is testing its post-2009 uptrend... again.

Investors have bought increasing volumes of put options that will pay out if the price of WTI drops to $20 to $30 a barrel next year. The largest open interest across options contracts - both bullish and bearish - for December 2016 is for puts at $30 a barrel. The open interest for June 2016 put options at $25 a barrel has nearly doubled over the last week. Investors have even bought put options that will pay if WTI drops below $15 a barrel by December next year. The volume of financial bets at that level is tiny - 640,000 barrels in total.

As Baghdad gears up for an assault on ISIS-held Mosul, the Iraqi army has managed to liberate Ramadi, the "heartland" of the country's Sunni community. “We went into the center of Ramadi from different axes, and we started clearing residential areas. The city will be cleared within the coming 72 hours."

• Oil up after U.S. crude stocks drop, still close to 11-year lows (Reuters)
• Global Stocks Rally; Mining, Metals Shares Lead Gains (WSJ)
• OPEC Sees Demand for Its Crude Oil Falling for Rest of Decade (BBG)
• The Trouble With Sovereign-Wealth Funds (WSJ)
• U.S. Calls for 256% Tariff on Imports of Steel From China (BBG)
• Iraqi troops expected to drive ISIS from Ramadi in days (Reuters)

With just a handful of trading sessions left in the year, this is how the major global markets look as 2015 is about to close. As of this moment, and in keeping with the Christmas spirit, the biggest question is whether the S&P500 will close green or red for the year.

Russia adds another 700,000 ounces (22 tonnes) to gold reserves in November. Ally Kazakhstan increased gold reserves for 38th month –  to over 7 million ounces. Russia views gold bullion as “100% guarantee from legal and political risks ...”

In a shocking new report, Seymour Hersh reveals what he says was a covert operation run by the Joint Chiefs of Staff who sought to undermine the Obama administration and the CIA's goal of overthrowing the Assad regime in Syria. "If the American public saw the intelligence we were producing daily, at the most sensitive level, they would go ballistic."

While Sweden is over-flowing with excess cash on bank balance sheets, it appears that banks in Hong Kong are desperate to borrow Yuan (or scared to lend) as overnight HIBOR just exploded higher to 9.45% - a record for the interbank offered rate. The HKD and CNY/CNH FX markets remain relatively stable (with Yuan fixed marginally higher again for the 3rd day). The last time 1-week HIBOR rates spiked like this, US equity markets crashed on Black Monday.

The 10 largest occupations include retail salespersons and cashiers, food preparation and serving workers, general office clerks, registered nurses, customer service representatives, and waiters and waitresses. That combined group of workers accounted for 21 percent of total U.S. employment in May 2014. Only one - registered nurse - makes more than the national average when it comes to all U.S. jobs.

"I hope I'm wrong but I fear Washington is trying to provoke a war in the Middle East to cover the coming collapse of the Petrodollar system and the American economy when the dollar is no longer the world reserve currency. The war is necessary to blame the coming dollar and debt collapse on Russia and China rather where it belongs on Wall Street, the central banking cartel and Washington political establishment. Remember while a Washington provoked war or conflict is likely to start in the Shia Crescent; it could spread across the Middle East and into Europe."