Archive - 2015

The manifesto for the micro-aggressives has been unleashed on an unknowing "safe-space"-seeking, politically-corrected, American public. Students at no lesser liberalist college than Oberlin, Ohio, have released 14 pages of full social-justice-warrior-tard warning that they are "not polite requests, but concrete and unmalleable demands." If Oberlin doesn’t capitulate, the document warns of a “full and forceful response" which however remains entirely undefined. 

"They just won't let the scales balance... it is a rampant narcissistic megalomania that somehow some guy in a air-conditioned office can best repliacte the free market and centrally plan our affairs... Their starry-eyed pollyanna-ish do-goodery never seems to pan out."

“Europe didn’t let us fly; Turkey didn’t let us fly, but we showed that even is such conditions we’re capable of coping with the task using airfields on the Russian territory."

If you had any doubt about whether the doomsayers were telling the truth about soaring NPLs in China, look no further than Huarong Asset Management Co, which is set to auction some $8 billion in sour loans on Taobao. As Barclays notes, "AMCs in general will more frequently resort to a “wholesaling model” for distressed asset disposal, given the increasing NPL supply amid the current credit cycle."

“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey

Hedonically-adjusted words for the wealthy...

In 13 succinct words, Donald Trump summed up reality in American politics...

In December 2013, in a sign of robust global trade driving demand for container ships, the Baltic Dry Index peaked at 2,330. By July 2014, rates had collapsed to 730. Today, rates have fallen to 471, the lowest since the recession began (in fact, the lowest ever). The BDI is a leading indicator pointing to worse trade conditions. Just as the 2014 collapse in the BDI reflected a collapse in global trade, the recent erosion in the BDI signals further trade weakness to come. Here's a snapshot of the meltdown.. and the pain is getting worse.

The Senate and House passed the spending bill this week, which the President signed into law on the same day. Embedded in the law is a provision to lift the 40-year old crude export ban. The lifting of the crude export ban is a historic milestone, but seemingly less relevant for US E&Ps, Midstream and Oilfield Services as compared to a year and a half ago when WTI-Brent spreads were close to $9.00/bbl vs. the current spread of $0.80/bbl. Nevertheless, there is still a negative long-term impact on refiners should spreads re-widen.

 I am sure corporations, wildcatters and trading firms are all making business decisions based upon these low natural gas prices, and they are not from the bullish side of the equation.

A world where money is decentralized means a world where nothing you’ve ever seen before will become the new norm and the new norm is unlikely to include a scrap of paper issued by a bankrupt government.

"Since the risk of Quantitative Failure brings with it the risk of more extreme policies/politics in 2016, the natural hedges are gold & volatility. Gold in particular will be interesting to watch in coming months. The Fed’s determination to raise rates means gold prices should fall. If in contrast gold rises with Fed hikes that’s a clear sign of a “policy mistake” and investors anticipating the need for more inflationary policies next year."

Comply, you cynics!

Having closed lower for 8 of the last 9 weeks, gold has become the momentum-chasing hedge fund community's latest target. Despite empirical data showing no relationship between higher rates and 'lower' gold, the meme continues as Managed Money added to its already record short position in gold futures this week, pushing the leveraged bets to the most extremely bearish in history.