Archive - 2015

As we recently reported, the US aircraft carrier USS Harry S Truman had made its way through The Mediterranean Sea, launchiung airstrikes on Syria and Iraq on its way. While the proximity of so many vessels, fighter jets, coasts, friends, enemies, and frenemies was always precarious, NBC News reports that the carrier came within 1500 yards of an Iranian rocket fired in a live-fire exercise in the Straits of Hormuz last week. US officials said this was "unnecessarily provocative and unsafe" from Obama's nuclear-deal partners.

Though evidence of a looming global healthcare crisis is plainly visible, few seem to realize the consequences will be catastrophic to individuals, households and national economies.

"At current prices we estimate that valuations for the oil and gas group reflect an implied Brent crude oil price in the range of $65-70/bbl while natural gas leveraged companies reflect a Henry Hub natural gas price in the range of $3.00/Mcf."

Is America DIRECTLY Supporting ISIS?

As the ruble plunges to record lows against the dollar, we take a close look at the outlook for inflation and GDP growth in 2016 in the context of The Kremlin's budget, which assumes $50/bbl crude. We also ask whether the deficit - expected to balloon to 4.4% of GDP in the event oil hovers around $35/bbl - will grow as a result of a planned bailout for insolvent state lender VEB. 

"Moody's downgrades Noble Group to Ba1; outlook negative.... "The downgrade of Noble's ratings reflects Moody's concerns over the company's liquidity," says Joe Morrison, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer. The Ba1 ratings also reflect low levels of profitability and consistent negative free cash flow from core operating activities, which exclude proceeds from asset sales."

"... On 12 December 2015, the Company was notified by the local public security bureau that the Truck was found but not the Lost Documents. As at the date of this announcement, although the possibility of finding the Lost Documents is not high, the Group has nonetheless deployed all possible resources in search of the Lost Documents."

In the next week, a potential ballot measure, submitted to the Office of the Attorney General in October, is expected to receive title and summary for the 2016 election, meaning its advocates will be able to collect signatures in order to secure its official place on the ballot. The proposed law would require legislators and candidates to sport the emblems of groups that donate money to their campaigns.

Following last week's huge 5.9mm draw (as entirely expected this time of year given window-dressing) expectations were for a 2.5mm barrel draw this week from DOE. However, API reported a major surprise 2.9mm barrel build, bring December's total to just 1.7mm drawdown (against a 5.5mm average draw in December). This is massively worse than expected given the seasonals (along with a 923k build at Cushing) and while WTI has oscillated up and down around $38 since the API/DOE build 2 weeks ago, it is fading on this data.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”

According to a new poll, Americans today see their country as losing the battle against terror despite having the most powerful military in the world. Apparently only 2 in 10 Americans think the U.S. is winning the war on terror, and see the ISIS Islamic State as holding the upper hand. Who says the terrorists aren’t winning against our freedoms?

Another hedge fund has decided to call it quits, this time chess-afficionado Doug Hirsch's event-driven $500 million Seneca Capital, which according to Bloomberg is returning outside capital today.

“I think 10-year USTs are quite attractive because of my outlook for the weakening economy. Actually I believe we’re already entering a recessionin the US. Given the weakness in the global economy and the deceleration of growth in the U.S., I would imagine that by next year the Fed will cut rates once again and launch QE4."