Archive - Jan 10, 2016

Libya is "crying for help" as its oil infrastructure is under attack by Islamic State. The fires burning at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf are so large, NASA spotted them from space.

Dear Client,

We believe there is a chance of disruption and highly illiquid conditions in the forex market during the coming weeks (and/or months). Please be aware that market gaps tend to occur over the weekend – that is, currencies trade at prices considerably distant from previous levels.

Remember a week ago when every TV anchor, pundit, asset-gatherer, and commission-taker stormed onto mainstream media and proclaimed the credit market collapse "fixed" because prices had 'stabilized' over the holiday period "proving that 3rd Avenue was a one off" and this dip was a buying opportunity? Yeah, well that was all complete crap... as Investment-Grade cost of funding hits a 3-year high, HY bond spreads blew out to cycle wides, 'triple-hooks' soared to their worst levels in almost 7 years, and credit protection costs rose by the most in years.

The NYSE Composite’s bull market is on very thin ice.

“Are they really going to create their own tax authority and other state structures? Ignore the rhetoric and declarations, follow the actions.”

In April the Dutch people will vote on the European-Ukraine association treaty.  In an interview with the NRC, a Dutch leading newspaper, Juncker warned the Dutch voters a “NO” will lead to a big continental crisis. “Russia and anti European movements will profit from a Dutch No, the Dutch has to vote yes for reasons not related to the treaty, the Dutch should act like an European strategist” according to Mr Juncker.

With all eyes focused on tonight's China open (and the "oops, China matters after all" meme), the Middle-East has fallen off the front (or back) pages of mainstream media. However, the last few days have been a bloodbath (analogistically as opposed to literally) across the Middle-East with Saudi stocks plunging 2.5% overnight (down almost 13% in the last 5 days) and every market from Bahrain to UAE all tumbling below August lows.

After last week’s moderate drop in rig count, the amount of horizontal oil rigs seems to implode this week.

"The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds."

"One for the NASDAQ haters: Silver double bubble chart along with NASDAQ chart. Similar feel." - Citi's Brent Donnelly

It was an ominous beginning to what is poised to be a most tumultuous year. Market participants are quickly coming to appreciate that China does in fact matter. Few understand why. Most – from billionaires to fund managers to retail investors – will “Do Nothing.” This has worked just fine in the past – repeatedly. Not understanding and not doing anything will be detriments going forward.

how many billions (or trillions) did China's so-called "national team" spend to prop up stocks in recent months? According to Goldman not less than CNY1.8 trillion in the June-November period.

"I am not in the habit of replying to silly comments on Poland made by foreign politicians. Such words, said by a German politician, cause the worst of connotations among Poles. Also in me. I'm a grandson of a Polish officer, who during World War II fought in the underground National Army with 'German supervision.' I came to a sad conclusion that it is easier for you to talk about fictitious threats to media freedom in other countries than to condemn censorship in your homeland." - Polish justice minister Zibgniew Ziobro

 In short, for oil prices to recover, US Production needs to drop to at the very least 6 million barrels per day for the market to rationalize in price.

On Sunday, Washington responded to Kim Jong-Un's nuclear sabre rattling by flying a B-52 over South Korea in a show of force that's sure to infuriate Pyongyang. Next up: Ash Carter may be set to send in an aircraft carrier.