Archive - Jan 17, 2016

What's wrong with this picture?

It is the “Core of the Core” that now concerns us the most. That is where Federal Reserve (and global central bank) policies have left their greatest mark. It is at the “Core of the Core” where momentous misperceptions and market mispricing have become deeply entrenched. It’s the “Core of the Core” that has attracted enormous amounts of “money” over recent years. It’s also here where I believe leverage has quietly been used most aggressively. Over recent years it became one massive Crowded Trade. Now the sophisticated players must contemplate beating the unsuspecting public to the exits.

A few dots are starting to be connected now that we have exposed the debacle of The Fed's decision to allow banks to mark-to-unicorn their energy loans. "Something" was wrong in recent weeks as the TED-Spread surged (implying rising counterparty uncertainty among banks) and then the last week - since The Fed's alleged meeting with banks - has seen financial credit and stocks crash. 2008 all-over-again as "when in doubt, sell 'em all" is back for the US financial system.

"Assuming selling in accordance to the average allocation of FX Reserve Managers and SWF across asset classes, we estimate that the sales of bonds by oil producing countries will increase from -$45bn in 2015 to -$110bn in 2016 and that the sales of public equities will increase from -$10bn in 2015 to -$75bn in 2016."

Iran is about to get a lot richer and according to President Rouhani, "everybody is happy except the Zionists, the warmongers who are fuelling sectarian war among the Islamic nation, and the hardliners in the U.S. congress."

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is absolutely imploding right now. When people get desperate, they do desperate things, and the latest move by the Clinton campaign reeks of putrid, panicked desperation. Of course, it makes perfect sense that Hillary Clinton, JP Morgan and Bank of America would share the same strategist. After all, they are the exact same brand.

Broad middle-east and african stock markets crashed over 5%, erasing any gains back to November 2008 as the carnage from last week continues. From Kuwait (-4.3%) to Qatar (-8%) it was a bloodbath as Saudi Arabia Tadawul Index plunged 5.4% - the most since Black Monday (now down over 50% from their 2014 highs). These losses are far in excess of US 'catch-up' moves and suggest a dark cloud over Asia this evening.

It must be China. Or the weather, which is usually either too cold or to warm – somehow the weather is just never right for economic growth. Surely it cannot be another Fed policy-induced boom that is on the verge of going bust? Sorry, we completely forgot – the Fed is never at fault when the economy suffers a boom-bust cycle. "[An] oversold market can easily become more oversold when it keeps being inundated with evidence that economic conditions are not what they were thought to be."

The Dallas Fed met with the banks a week ago and effectively suspended mark-to-market on energy debts and as a result no impairments are being written down. Furthermore, as we reported earlier this week when first nothing the rumor, the Fed indicated "under the table" that banks were to work with the energy companies on delivering without a markdown on worry that a backstop, or bail-in, was needed after reviewing loan losses would exceed the current tier 1 capital tranches.

Yesterday was "Implementation Day" for the Iran nuclear accord and no one is happier about it than President Obama who is set to explain to America why rapprochement with Tehran is in everyone's best interests.

“Tsai should keep in mind that if she revisits Chen’s dangerous path to cross the red line of cross-Straits relations, she will meet a dead end. If the DPP abandons the progress made by its predecessor in the past eight years, it will jeopardize its future as a ruling party. The lesson of Chen Shui-bian should be a long-lasting lesson."

Three pressing questions about Bitcoin and blockchain answered

Draghi could go nuts, as sinking oil prices are pushing inflation towards zero in Europe...

BANZAI7 FOOD BEVERAGE AND HYPOCRITICAL DOUCHEWEASEL WARNING!