Archive - 2016

Carnage continues. Small Caps have now joined Trannies in bear market territory (down 20% from the highs to September 2014 lows). S&P 500 is now in correction mode (down 10.7% from all-time-highs) as is Nasdaq.

Just days after a man waving a meat cleaver barged screaming into a police station in northern Paris, a teenager wielding a machete and shouting "Allahu Akbar" attacked a worshipper at a Marseille synagogue on Monday. The man was saved by the Torah - literally.

With rate hike odds for March plunging from over 55% a week ago to just 38% now, it appears faith in The Fed has utterly failed. WTI traded down to $30.97 - the lowest ssince Dec 2003.

But here is a giant freebie for all those stupid, clueless oil executives out there in North America.

"Bikers, hooligans, and bouncers" - oh my! It's vigilante justice time in Cologne, where "gangs" of angry Germans organized a "human hunt" on Facebook before attacking a group of Pakistanis in the city center.

"Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt. For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. All of them (hundreds) are either anchored offshore or in-port. NOTHING is moving. This has never happened before. It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped."

While some central banks prefer to stealthily 'manage' their markets, a bid here, a stick-save there, today's epic intervention, short-squeeze, carry-trade-carnage in Offshore Yuan is the most visible hand yet in the new normal world of central planning. USDCNH is now down over 850 pips on the day - a record 1.25% strengthening in the offshore Yuan...

In what may be the latest bad news for Hillary Clinton, whose various "previous life" scandals - from emails, to Clinton foundation donations - refuse to go away, the Hill reports, citing Fox News, that the FBI has expanded its investigation of Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of State to determine whether her Clinton Foundation work violated public corruption laws.

Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince Muhammad bin Salman made headlines this week when he said that the kingdom was considering an IPO of Saudi Aramco, the nation’s state-owned oil company. But there are reasons to doubt that 1) the Saudi government will actually follow through on the plan, 2) even if some shares are listed, operations will change significantly, and 3) that such a move presents a huge opportunity for investors. Sure, Aramco might be worth trillions in theory. But returning cash to shareholders is not and will not be the top priority.

On Tuesday, it was announced that over seventeen million new vehicles were sold in 2015, the highest it’s ever been in United States history. While the media claims that this record has been reached because of drastic improvements to the US economy, they are once again failing to account for the central factor: credit expansion. The auto bubble has yet to burst, but its negative effects are already starting to gradually appear.

Some very troubling charts for the stock bulls to consider.

Maybe because not enough people caught the dire warning the first time, moments ago Bloomberg reported that Han Jun, the deputy director of China’s office of the central leading group for financial and economic afairs, spoke at an event at the Chinese consulate in New York and practically reiterated the anonymous source's warning practically verbatim. To wit: "There won’t be a strong economic stimulus and people shouldn’t expect a V-shape recovery; instead long period of L-shape growth path is likely" said Han, who participated in the drafting of China’s latest five year plan.

Well that escalated quickly...

The momentous momentum stocks appear to have crashed into the reality of extreme valuations in a no-growth, carry-trade-unwind environment. It's not pretty out there...