Archive - 2016

There were four things we mostly cared about in today's JPM earnings release, the first Wall Street bank to report Q4 results:i) how did the company's fixed income and equity trading revenue do; ii)what is the bank's credit exposure to energy/oil;iii) did the recent Fed hike do anything to boost the company's Net Interest Margin (this has been the primary catalyst for bank share upside), and iv) did JPM halt its practice of releasing reserves and start building reserves - a major inflection point when it comes to management expectations for future credit quality deterioration.

We’re experiencing wealth-destruction due to asset-price dynamics alone. The negative moves will stop only when excess leverage is trimmed and not just when prices return to “fair value.”

European shares tumbled, wiping out gains from a two-day rally, Asian stocks slid and the cost of insuring corporate debt rose as investor concern over global growth prospects resurfaced. U.S. equity-index futures pared gains of as much as 0.9 percent. Government bonds rose, with yields falling to records in Japan and China amid anxiety over the world economy. U.S. crude prices stabilized after dropping below $30 a barrel on Tuesday to touch the lowest since 2003 as Iran moved closer to boosting exports.

Don’t look now, but Renault may be pulling a Volkswagen. The French company’s shares fell by as much as 23% on Thursday after an apparent raid on what a union official described as “sites that have to do with standards testing and engine certification.”

*POLICE SAYS ABT. 10-14 GUNMEN SEEN IN CENTRAL JAKARTA: METRO TV

Two months after the Paris explosions of November 13, it appears terrorism has struck again, this time in Indonesia's capital, Jakarta where moments ago, at least six bomb explosions, gunfire and casualties were reported (AFP is reporting three dead but this is unconfirmed), with at least one of the explosions taking place near the local UN office.

Chinese stocks are down over 20% from Dec highs at 2-year lows, Offshore Yuan is tumbling once again, and Hong Kong Dollar is under severe pressure (with significant de-pegging risk once again).

As WSJ reports, a banker from Industrial & Commercial Bank of China "said the number of people wanting to change yuan for dollars has increased significantly during the past three weeks—a period during which the Chinese currency has declined about 2%." Over the weekend for instance, "ICBC received an urgent notification from China’s central bank warning of a dollar shortage."

Prosperity is not complicated. People figured out thousands of years ago that if you wanted to do well, you had to produce more than you consumed. But the American system is the exact opposite, favoring those who recklessly borrow and spend, rather than those who work hard and responsibly save. The President of the United States boldly accused everyone who doesn’t share his view as just making things up. In his words, “Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction.” This is an extraordinary (and delusional) statement.

EM debt bubble... emaciated, FX Carry... crucified, Crude...crushed,  High yield bonds... burst, Chinese equities... blown, Trannies... trounced, Small Caps... slammed, Biotechs... busted, and FANGs finally FUBAR! But there is one big (very big) bubble left in the world that no one is talking about, and a rather large liquidity-busting pin beckons...

"It is incompetence or dishonesty for my fellow economists to deny these two effects of minimum wages: discrimination against employment of low-skilled labor and the lowering of the cost of racial discrimination."

According to Bloomberg, on a share-weighted basis, S&P 500 profits are expected to have dropped by 7.2% in 4Q, while revenues are expected to fall by 3.1% This would represent the worst U.S. earnings season since 3Q 2009, and a third straight quarter of negative profit growth.

Correlation or Causation?