Archive - 2016

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January 6th

Tyler Durden's picture

FOMC Minutes Show Fed Rate Hike Decision Was "A Close Call", Feared Market Reaction





Since The December 16th FOMC decision to hike rates, Gold is up over 2%, Bonds up 1%, and stocks down 3% suggesting the word "error" with regard Fed policy. As The FOMC Minutes are released, traders anticipate confident-hawkishness and a focus on ignoring current data in favor of preferring their own confident outlook:

  • *ALMOST ALL FED OFFICIALS AGREED LIFTOFF CONDITIONS MET IN DEC.
  • *FED: LINGERING RISKS TO OUTLOOK INCLUDED FURTHER USD STRENGTH
  • *A FEW FED OFFICIALS SAID FINANCIAL RISKS COULD ALTER RATE PATH

January's meeting has negligible probabilities for a rate move but March has 45% chance of a hike and 3% chance of a cut. The apparent unanimity of December's decision appears questionable given the Minutes suggestions of some dissent.

Pre-FOMC Minutes: S&P Futs 1983.25, 10Y 2.19%, Gold $1094, EUR 1.0755, WTI $34.05

 

GoldCore's picture

Gold Price Up On Mid East, Asia Risk – January Best Monthly Performance





Gold has has been one of the best months for gold in terms of monthly performance in the last 10 years. Bloomberg confirms that today.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Just Out From Evercore ISI: "Sell All Rallies Down To 1900"





"With the macro backdrop more vulnerable today than at any time since the financial crisis, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ still near all-time highs, we anticipate a downside move to 1900 on the S&P within the first two months of the year. We reiterate our view that Crude and Energy remain structurally broken and possess significant downside from current levels which will only agitate and exacerbate the ongoing collaps."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

DVA Is Dead: Banks Will No Longer "Profit" From Collapsing





The debt valuation adjustment, or DVA, will no longer be included in net income, according to revisions to the fair-value measurement standard published by the Financial Accounting Standards Board Tuesday.  The DVA rule increased net income when a bank’s bonds tanked, on the theory that the firm could buy back its bonds at a lower price and benefit from the decline in value.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Another Rung In The Bull Market Yanked Out





The relative strength of the consumer discretionary sector versus consumer staples had been a positive for stocks – not anymore.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

A Disturbing Warning From UBS: "Buy Gold" Because A 30% Bear Market Is Coming





As Wall Street axioms (Santa rally, January effect, as goes January etc.) are rapidly falling by the wayside at the start of 2016, following a chaotic but return-less 2015, the UBS analysts who correctly forecast last year's volatility are out with their forecast for 2016. It's simple - Sell Stocks, Buy Gold... expect a Fed u-turn.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

China Has A "Colossal Credit Bubble" And No One Knows How It Will Unwind, Marc Faber Warns





"We had a hard landing in the stock market already. We had a hard landing in commodities. [So yes], we could have a hard landing in the economy. China has a colossal credit bubble and no one knows how it's going to unwind."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

10 Key Energy Trends To Watch For In 2016





Energy investors got clobbered in 2015, and are hoping for things to turn positive as we head into the New Year. What can we expect in 2016? Here is a rundown of some key trends to watch for...

 

hedgeless_horseman's picture

hedgeless_horseman's Revolutionary Call to Arms





Many of us are wishing to be bold, and maybe even revolutionary.  But we are far too comfortable, and also too afraid. 

 

Tyler Durden's picture

A Warning For The Bears: Gartman Calls It "This Is Now A Fully-Fledged Bear Market"





Just when you thought it was safe to go short: "We are, for the first time in years suggesting… indeed, we are stating it rather clearly… our belief that the global bull market that began in the spring of ’09 ended, in retrospect, in the very first days of summer of last year. We shall, henceforth, look to err bearishly of equities, holding long positions in some equities, but erring on balance to the short side of the global equity market."

 

Tyler Durden's picture

A Mysterious Death Raises Questions In Russia





Intrigues within the Kremlin reignited Monday after the chief of Russia's military intelligence service, Igor Sergun, died unexpectedly. Sergun was a relatively unknown figure who kept a very low profile over his 30-year career, despite the fact that his position at the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the General Staff of the Armed Forces made him one of the most powerful figures in Russian security.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Yes, The ECB Chief Economist Really Said It: "If You Print Enough Money, You Always Get Inflation. Always."





And with that we can finally close the book on slippery central bank semantics on what precisely it is that they do, and what it is they plan to achieve.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

WTI Crude Plunges To $34 Handle After Record Gasoline Inventory Build





Following last night's API-reported large draw in overall crude inventories (year-end and exports driven), DOE reports a 5.09mm draw (more than expectations of a 4.1mm draw but less than API's 5.6mm draw). However, Cushing inventories rose for the 9th week in a row (+917k) and more troubling for the future is gasoline inventories soared 10.58mm barrels - an all-time record (and distillates rose 6.31mm barrels). Crude prices already gave up their API gains and are tumbling back below $35 on this build news.

 

Tyler Durden's picture

Things That Make You Go Boom: U.S. Spending On Military Aircraft Surges Most Since September 11





Now that the subprime-funded "growth dynamo" that kept the US economy chugging along over the past year has finally choked, as we saw yesterday when auto sales posted the weakest print in half a year, there is just one industry that is keeping US factory orders, which have already declined for 13 consecutive months, from an all out implosion. War.

 
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