Archive

August 26th, 2016

Iran Sets Condition Under Which It Would Join OPEC Oil Production Freeze

Iran's oil minister Bijan Zanganeh made the most explicit statement on the topic, when he laid out the conditions under which Iran would be willing to "help other oil producers stabilize the world market."  It was a simple condition: Iran will cooperate as long as it is excluded from the freeze.

US Trade Deficit Shrinks On Biggest Spike In Food & Beverage Exports In History

Forget the new economy, it appears - judging by July's preliminary trade data - that USA's great export is 'food and beverage'. Thanks to a 31.3% surge month-over-month in this category - the biggest MoM gain in history - the US trade deficit 'improved' to -$59.3bn (from -$64.5bn revised lower) and beat expectations of -$63bn.

Q2 GDP Revised Lower To 1.1%, As Expected, Even As Personal Consumption Rises

In what has been called the economic equivalent of hitting 00 on roulette, moments ago the BEA announced that Q2 GDP eased off from the original estimate of 1.2%, declining fractionally to 1.09%, and right on top of consensus etimates, which also expected a 1.1% print in the second quarter. This means that following the disappointing Q1 print of 0.83%, the first half economic growth is now officially just below 1%, or 0.096% to be precise.

Inventory Growth Slowdown Dashes Hopes For Q3 GDP Bounce Back

Following the surge in sales (on higher petroleum costs) in June (and modest build in inventories), the sales-stock ratio fell back from cycle highs (though remained deep in recessionary territory). July's preliminary data showed a notable slowdown in inventories (-0.02% vs a 0.1% expected gain and revised lower 0.2%) confirming recent PMI data of no pickup in growth in Q3. For 32 months straight, inventory growth has outpacced sales growth year-over-year with 18 straight months of wholesale sales declines.

"Will Yellen Shock Today?"

Well, we made it. It’s finally Janet Yellen day. Has a speech by a Fed Chair ever been anticipated, dissected and stressed over to this extent? It’s partially down to the fact that she has largely, even unprecedentedly, made herself unavailable for public comment. Sending her minions out to confuse us. But more distressingly, they have put themselves in a situation where a measly 25 basis points looms like a life-changing event. 

GoldCore's picture

Possibly, the most vitriolic, hateful and divisive election in U.S. history is set to be witnessed and this will likely lead to considerable volatility in markets and should see the dollar come under pressure. Seasonally gold is entering the sweet spot with the Autumn being gold's best season and with September being gold's best month (see chart)

Frontrunning: August 26

  • Global equities set 2-week low before Yellen speech, dollar dips (BBG)
  • Lochte signs new endorsement deal, legal woes persist in Brazil (Reuters)
  • Blackstone Unleashes Cash Hoard in Texas Shale Oil Land Grab (BBG)
  • China to prosecute former statistics bureau chief for corruption (Reuters)
  • Turkey fires on U.S.-backed Kurdish militia in Syria offensive (Reuters)

In Surprising Twist, Ackman Named As Potential Buyer Of Icahn Herbalife Stake

Having won the battle with Bill Ackman over the existential legality of Herbalife, who owns 18% of the nutritional company, has found himself in a curious place: with no further upside catalysts and with the company levered to the neck with recent buyback-funding debt issues, there is litle upside left. In fact, the stock has been drifting lower ever since the settlement. Which is why, perhaps it is not surprising, that as the WSJ reported overnight, Icahn has been quietly shopping his stake in Herbalife to a group "including the company’s arch-nemesis William Ackman,

With Janet Yellen Just Hours Away, Directionless Markets Wait For A Signal

With Yellen's much anticipated speech just hours away, the already comatose market flatlined overnight in another directionless session, with European stocks and US equity futures practically unchanged, while Asian shares to a two-week low, led by Japan, as investors showed a reluctance to take on risk before Yellen’s speech. The dollar was a tad lower, along with oil which is set for its first weekly drop in a month.