Archive - Oct 2009 - Blog entry

Same as it ever was ...

The REIT space has seen share prices pop significantly in this extended bear market rally. This, along with a few financial shenanigans, seems to have masked the effect that a literal real estate depression has had on those entities which buy, sell, develop and hold real estate. The fundamentals and macro outlook are still horrendous, yet share prices have been elevated significantly. Ackman, from Pershing Square, has released his short thesis on the REIT Realty Income, and I throw my 22 cents in (it was 2 cents, but I levered up 10x), as well as offer another REIT with a greater cash flow problem...

When I testified on Parliament Hill last April, I knew it be a matter of time before pensioners would be protesting their cuts in pensions and benefits. As much as the images of Nortel pensioners taking it to the Hill disturb me, they are nothing compared to the mass protests we'll see all around the world in the future when the pension crisis reaches a boiling point. Politicians should take this as a wake-up call and act in the best interests of all citizens.

A rare interview with the woman behind the pseudonym behind the man behind the pseudonym.

This the skinny on PNC Bank. The "Off the Books" version, you know the stuff you will never get from the sell side or the popular media.

I wondered how America fell so fast. I think I found the answers.

This is a good start...

As pension plans face mounting financial strains, they will be scrutinizing every relationship, including the ones with their big custodial banks. If there is any truth to these allegations, State Street will see many of their pension clients switching to another custodial bank.

If you moved music stands at Carnegie Hall for a living, you might think you were lucky to get the job. You get to work with the some of the greatest musical talents of our time. And, the work isn't that hard. Maybe even fun to be around all that genius. But what if you made $530,000 a year doing it. Now, THAT would be fun. Maybe board president Sandy Weill doesn't think that's so much. After all, it is the Big Apple.

What do you think?

Track the career of the man who in 1999 testified to Congress against derivatives regulation on behalf of the Fed and PPT, only to recant in 2008, then become Fed's Director of Banking Supervision.

The government rescued bondholders so they wouldn't have to take a haircut.

Everyday Americans? We've been scalped ...

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness, writes brilliantly on investment risk, but his proposed solution to the economic crisis, converting defaulting mortgages to equity by banks, will result in America catching the Japanese Disease. We can't keep debt lingering on the books of banks like they did in Japan. And you can't magically turn stone into bread. Read this and tell me what you think. Perhaps he is creating another black swan.

Are Fannie and Freddie dead or are they not? That is the question. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods says the stock is toast. As of today the Administration is putting them to work for a few more years. Is the outcome the same but the timing different? What is the "Trickle Up" theory? Will it work?

I believe monetary authorities are desperately trying to reflate the real economy by flooding the financial system with a tsunami of liquidity. Asset bubbles are being formed as we speak. Equity and commodity prices will head much higher but it remains to be seen whether higher asset prices will translate into higher real prices. Stay tuned, but in the meantime you might want to curb your enthusiasm and remain very alert as asset prices disconnect from fundamentals.