Archive - Dec 2009 - Blog entry

Are we going to have a V-shaped recovery? W-shaped? L-shaped? WWWWW-shaped?

Where is my new economy? Kiss that assembly line job goodbye, and keep taking those Mandarin lessons

The top five shorts of the decade, the new champion and my take on the possible implications, partly supported by Dr. Marc Faber.

Federal Reserve conducting covert Treasury monetization, John Williams warns of U.S. hyperinflation, UN producing bullion coins as world currency, Pakistani government enters political crisis, Lieberman offers to personally hunt down terrorists in Yemen, massive regional war approaches.

Wall Street real estate fund investors have essentially given an implicit, cost free "call option" on the real estate market to the big banks. This cost free call incentivized the banks to do as many big deals as fast they could during the CRE bubble, and allowed them to profit even when the deals went bad (as many of them have and inevitably will due to the bubble prices, leverage, expanding cap rates and a negative fundamental/macro outlook). Most observers will be shocked to see the disparity in the returns between the bank, as the fund manager, and their investors. Well, I present to you, "shock" in the form of a blog post!

Today's market action was rather uneventful, however "lazy" days like today can often provide highly accurate and effective trading signals as a direct result of price immobility within narrow ranges. With a practical knowledge / understanding of technical analysis, one can utilize such signals to profitably scalp futures, stocks and ETFs with ease.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and CPPIB are reportedly planning to make a joint bid for EDF Energy, the giant U.K. electricity distribution network owned by France's Electricité de France.

In this 12.28.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 10 technical profiles of Gold, Silver, the US Dollar Index, the VIX, the BKX (Bank Index), GS (Goldilocks), SKF and the Cult of Cupertino, er, crAAPLe, er, (snap crackle) AAPL.

Feed the ducks while they're quacking

If we tackle all flawed arguments against gold on the basis of logic and from the perspective of understanding that from time to time, bankers execute artificial schemes to depress the price of gold to serve their own purposes, then it should be quite simple to ignore your local politician and economist when they tell you that you shouldn’t buy gold because it is a bubble.

So, now the buy side becomes the sell side?!?!?!
I am here to weigh in on the increasingly popular marketing battle over GGP's (General Growth Properties) value in, and out of bankruptcy. The players in question are Ackman/Pershing square - long the company's stock, Hovde Capital Advisors - short the stock, and Reggie Middleton - the original player! [and the first guy to call GGP's downfall two years ago at $55 with an investment grade rating and multiple sell side buy recos!] Being an early mover who was right, and having no position in the stock now gives me a position of credibility to pick a winner in this fight. And the winner is...

The Treasury/FHFA announcements regarding the Agencies were bungled. I wonder if anyone is going to pay a price for this.

Not even Christmas is safe from cost cutting, or so it seems when comparing this year's New York Stock Exchange Christmas dress-up to last year...

The energy debate is about to ruin your life.