Archive - Dec 2009 - Blog entry

The magnifying glass has been wiped clean and is re-focused on the under-appreciated, sell side manipulated train wreck that is the commercial real estate space. Goldman has just upgraded the sector and is currently peddling CMBS to to clients who obviously don't believe a thing that I say. I am now provided a peak into a large CRE REIT, down to the property level and will follow up with a look into the CMBS that hold the mortgages behind these properties. Next up, Reggie vs. Goldman, a head to head CRE confrontation...

The economy will not recover until Ben and Tim are fired ...

To us, the confirmation hearings last week before the Senate Banking Committee only reaffirm in our minds that Benjamin Shalom Bernanke does not deserve a second term as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Graham Turner is an outsider. In his view, the Japanese experience offers a frightening glimpse into our future, with deflation, where the prices of assets such as houses and shares are locked into a downward spiral, becoming entrenched. If that happens, conventional policy measures, such as reducing interest rates and pushing through huge increases in government spending, can fail, as indeed they have in Japan.

Gold fell for the first time during last week, off 4% on Friday to $1,162.40 an ounce, the biggest drop since Dec. 1, 2008 after the new U.S. jobs data showed unexpected strength. While gold has some underlying support from central banks and investment funds, there are some indications suggesting gold is moving mostly on momentum, and that a deeper correction may be due.

On the surface, the decrease in unemployment and the increase in factory orders seem encouraging. But if we dig a little deeper, the numbers tell a different story. Much of these "gains" relate to stimulus and aren't real and will dissipate once stimulus wears off.

Wouldn't it be ironic if the market put in a top on the good news that "America is back"?

The US Taxpayer has long been the dumbest, richest investor around. You know the kind – a little overweight, with cheery disposition, not understanding how he’s been “over-served” when in slurred speech he thanks the bar tender for the sales receipt on which he signs his name – plus adding a generous gratuity – for his “new good friends”.
With politicians in charge, the “average” person with a job, a family, and a “real” life never had a chance.

The carry trade is not dead. Only wounded. The prognosis is for a complete recovery thanks to that lifesaver, Ben B.

The pace of withdrawing non-standard operations is a balancing act for all central banks that engaged in quantitative easing. If they proceed too quickly and too aggressively, they risk creating another global recession.

Dollar up, gold down ... check.

Dollar up, Dow up ... huh?

Gold futures register a "Multiple Confluence" of sell signals across several time-frames ...

It appears that all the improvements in the housing market have not been due to market corrections, but are from government stimulus, and the numbers are fake. Such actions will only delay a recovery and housing prices will continue to fall.

Supporters of an escalation of the Afghanistan war often respond to criticism by asking "okay smart guy, what would YOU do to fight Al Qaeda in Afghanistan?"

Here's one answer ...

For those of you still pondering Dubai or do you sell, you're missing the rally of a lifetime.