Archive - Sep 29, 2009 - Blog entry

All global economic problems today are rooted in the existence of Central Banks and their commitment to an application of destructive Keynesian economic theories to our global monetary system that simply has not worked for the better part of this century. Within the realm of academics, monetary policy, politics and media, there is a persistent refusal to acknowledge the primary role Central Banks undertake in artificially creating boom-bust cycles that would not occur in such severe fashion were Central Banks simply willing to step out of the way and allow free market forces to operate.

With the exception of a few, many retail/apparel stocks are back to - or in some cases even higher - than their pre-bubble valuations. Someone remind me, unemployment is where, again?

A lot of hedge funds are hurting but most are doing well because they're riding the Beta Express up while charging alpha fees to their investors. Take it from me, hedge funds are no no panacea. And in many cases, they are pure con artists peddling snake oil.

More tough talk from a Fed Governor. The problem with talking tough is if you do not back it up with action you look soft. If that is the way this plays out the weak link is still the dollar. If they raise rates as they say they will it is going to dramatically increase the cost of funding the mega-trillions of short term debt that Geithner has floated on our behalf.

Currently, the great market debate seems to center around two chief concerns: Have stocks jumped ahead of the economic recovery? And if so, are they setting up for a big correction? To better gauge the real economic condition, I typically like to look at commercial trade related indicators to verify just how good or bad business is doing. One of the most ignored leading economic indicators is probably freight volume. A review of some key freight indices should provides a much more sobering picture of the US economy.