Archive - 2009 - Blog entry

In this year of outlier events, the outlier trade may be realized.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said not only did public sector workers have greater access to so-called gold-plated defined benefit schemes than those who worked for private companies, but the schemes themselves were typically more generous.

Questions for our Esteemed Chairman ...

We might get falling inflation (disinflation or deflation) and rising real interest rates, which would hasten the decline of the American empire.

How low does the dollar have to go before Ben reacts? Does Ben B have a threshold for pain? I think he does and it is closer than you might think.

Late last week it was reported that Goldman made its first commitment to Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) lending. For the uninitiated, this may seem like a good thing. Indeed, the papers pointed to the benefits of an additional $500 million in small business loans in today’s economy. But to those experienced in the industry, something more sinister may be afoot. Such commitments rarely mean anything, and are usually merely the publicly-visible component of a successful community organizer holdup scheme.

1-4 Family First Lien portfolios for the Top 4 lenders deteriorate in the 3rd Quarter. Early Stage delinquencies climb noticeably.

Gold futures rally $25 in overnight trading up to $1200.50 -- exceeding PM end-of-year target of $1200 -- before retreating to $1195. How many gold bugs does it take to change a light bulb?

Rating agencies are now getting kudos for actually doing their job? What's the mainstream media world coming to?

In addition to taking a big chunk out of individuals' 401(k)s, last fall's market meltdown left 92% of corporate pension plans underfunded at year's end, according to a study by investment consultant Wilshire Associates. As bad as that sounds, it pales in comparison to the shortfalls in public pension plans.

Just a thought

An empirical analysis of the most recent NY Fed and FDIC loan loss data shows things getting materially worse, despite the $75 billion foreclosure prevention efforts, quantitative easing, zero interest rate policy, and hundreds of billions of dollars of injected liquidity and MBS purchases. What can we expect with even the slightest blip upwards in interest rates... Complete mayhem among many dead banks would be my first guess.

Did you know that the tax code ENCOURAGES high levels of leverage?

Whatever you think about the leaked emails showing that "tricks" were used to "hide the decline" in the climate data, and the fact that the original source data showing historical climate information was destroyed, you should agree on two things.

A Detailed Technical Update of the S&P cash, S&P futures, DJIA cash, Gold futures, the VIX and the US Dollar Index ... as well as a look into the "Crown Jewel" of Dubai