Archive - 2009 - Blog entry

There are many comments surrounding the return of TARP. I think one of the most important points are being missed. Most of these banks swore that they didn't need TARP. Despite this, in order to return it, they must go back out to the capital markets. Why do you have to hit the market to return a loan that you said you didn't need, unless you needed it? This obvious lie has went unchallenged.

I really wonder what possesses people to believe these sales pitches,
hook, line and sinker... Seriously, what the hell was this guy
thinking???

Earlier this week, I noticed that PSP posted the audio that accompanied the 2009 annual public meeting. I will follow-up on last week's comment by going over the presentation given by PSP's President & CEO, Gordon Fyfe. Listen to the flimsy explanation given as to why PSP does not disclose their private market benchmarks...

Nouriel Roubini, my favorite playboy economist, recently trashed gold. He's wrong for a lot of reasons. His arguments weren't that coherent. Spam, indeed. Instead of refuting him point by point, since others have already done that, I will just make my case for what I think will happen to gold. We'll see if my guess is better than his.

The deal for Treasury to sell $5b of Citi common has been pulled at the last minute. The excuse is they did not like the price. Baloney!

While all of this is short term noise, it is absolutely amazing that there would be this much commitment to the market after a 60% plus run in the S&P500.

Regulatory capture has allowed what was just a bunch of stinky bank balance sheets to literally threaten the economy. Here is another shining (or stinking, depending on your perspective) example.

A pension fund for fire and police officers has sued the board of Goldman Sachs, seeking to stop the investment bank from paying out billions of dollars in bonuses to the bank's staff. Will larger public pension funds join in on the lawsuit? I wouldn't count on it...

Carbon trading is a scam. But soot can be reduced COST-EFFECTIVELY, which not only will do a lot in regards to climate (if the world is warming - see Project Mayhem's writings), but will also be good for the health of those who live in China, India and other areas getting mugged by the gunk.

One of the screens that we at Fibozachi continually monitor throughout the Cash session (09:30 - 16:00) is the NYSE TICK.

The hackneyed cliche of "volume precedes price" is certainly true more often than not, however, it is far from foolproof. We prefer to modify this tired cliche by saying that: "buying and selling pressure precedes price."

The snapshots included (from today's session) clearly illustrate how this critical relationship (between the TICK and price action itself) plays out on a daily basis.

In this 12.15.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present you with 15 technical profiles of the BKX - Bank Index, Crude Oil Futures, Natural Gas Futures, the VIX, the US Dollar Index, and IBM common stock ...

Is Citi going to be out of TARP after completing the secondary it is trying to get done? No is the answer. But you could have fooled me.

REITs have ascended too far from their fundamentals -DJ US Real Estate Index has outpaced S&P 500 index by more than 50% during a time when their macro and fundamental outlook pale compared to that of the broad market. There is no "deal" to be had here! What you are witnessing is momentum trading, not fundamental value.

If the economy is to recover, the price of Nat Gas will have to move higher. Exxon bet a reasonable portion of the 'ranch' on gas with the XTO deal. I think it is a good bet. Exxon's good news is going to be bad news for everyone else. Same old, same old.

Ackman from Pershing Square fame has released a very bullish CRE presentation. I stand diametrically opposed to both the conclusions and the analysis in general, thus have created my own comprehensive CRE outlook for 2010 and beyond. Here you have it: A bulls vs bears debate in the CRE space - both of which are quite well documented and allow for rich reading.