Archive - Jan 15, 2010 - Blog entry

Institutional Risk Analytics FTW ...

Just another day at the office. Treasury, Fannie, Freddie and HUD have completed a sweet deal. Another $30b down a hole. But his time it won't cost us a cent. Honest, really, this time it'll be different. Lies.

2009 reacquainted the investment profession with the alphabet, as it was the year of the V, U, L, and W. Every economist tried to get recognition for predicting the most appropriate letter to describe the US economy’s expected path. Sadly, very few of those letters made investors any significant amount of money during the year, and now the debate about the economy rages on as to whether it will double-dip, or continue to climb. However, there was one letter that was very profitable to investors for most of 2009 – Beta.

Meeting with the head G-Man. FBI Director Robert Mueller gives his take on the Google Affair. Welcome to the new Cold War. Where is my 20 terabytes of data? One country’s criminal is another’s national hero.

This paper considers the potential liquidity risks related to interoperability ~ the issue at the center of the current multi-jurisdictional regulatory review that has temporarily suspended progress toward increased competition in equity clearing. It discusses several options regulators and CCPs could consider to mitigate the systemic risks that could be triggered from liquidity risks in multi-CCP links, and also presents options to minimise the credit risk to CCPs arising from the failure of an inter-operating CCP.

Pray tell, how can anyone in their right mind trust the economic reporting of company that says it is running 13 cylinders of an 8 cylinder engine leading the world to economic recovery when they overtly, and without denial, censor free speech and publicly outlaw research and even Internet searches on government activities?

The grave unemployment situation not only undermines the economic health and recovery hopes, but is also acting as a major source of financial strain on the Fed's books. It is observed that the Fed has been taking in huge deficits on its books because of UI programs. The total UI withdrawals on Fed books in 2009 were $139 billion against deposits of just $31 billion received from states for unemployment. While the withdrawals in 2009 have increased by 320% when compared with withdrawals in 2007, the deposits have declined by 6.6%. The deficit has increased to nearly $107 billion from nearly no deficit, two years ago.

Are bond markets signaling the start of the Great Transition? Will inflationists or deflationists get the last laugh?