Archive - Oct 17, 2010 - Blog entry

The next big focus in the foreign exchange markets will be a strengthening US economy and another slow down in Europe. After one last gasp, that could take the euro as high as $1.45, and a great shorting opportunity will set up that could take it as low as $1.10-$1.15 next year. The US elections will remove much uncertainty from the dollar just when American growth is reasserting itself, opening the way for another down leg in the European currency. (FXE)

This is the introductory article for my JP Morgan quarterly opinion, which asks questions that will probably piss off management but I haven't heard anyone else ask them. I will be presenting views on this topic on CNBC's Squawk on the Street tomorrow (Monday) morning. I urge all to tune in.

Now that they passed their high-water mark, are hedge funds going to crank up the risk?

The Commitment of Traders Report is created by the CFTC – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is published weekly every Friday. This body gathers and publishes the open futures positions on all publicly traded US futures contracts as well as the corresponding options. The data consists of 3 main categories.

Not my best week....

Weather in primary producer, Latin America, has been poor. US coffee stockpiles are now at 10 year lows. Major producer Vietnam is threatening to cease exports and start hoarding, as Russia has already done with wheat. Although prices are now at 13 year highs, we may get even more of a jolt out of this trade.