Archive - Oct 2010 - Blog entry

The next big focus in the foreign exchange markets will be a strengthening US economy and another slow down in Europe. After one last gasp, that could take the euro as high as $1.45, and a great shorting opportunity will set up that could take it as low as $1.10-$1.15 next year. The US elections will remove much uncertainty from the dollar just when American growth is reasserting itself, opening the way for another down leg in the European currency. (FXE)

This is the introductory article for my JP Morgan quarterly opinion, which asks questions that will probably piss off management but I haven't heard anyone else ask them. I will be presenting views on this topic on CNBC's Squawk on the Street tomorrow (Monday) morning. I urge all to tune in.

Now that they passed their high-water mark, are hedge funds going to crank up the risk?

The Commitment of Traders Report is created by the CFTC – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is published weekly every Friday. This body gathers and publishes the open futures positions on all publicly traded US futures contracts as well as the corresponding options. The data consists of 3 main categories.

Not my best week....

Weather in primary producer, Latin America, has been poor. US coffee stockpiles are now at 10 year lows. Major producer Vietnam is threatening to cease exports and start hoarding, as Russia has already done with wheat. Although prices are now at 13 year highs, we may get even more of a jolt out of this trade.

I don't mean to sound cynical (which I am), but has anyone in the media bothered to ask: why did the SEC decide to settle with Mozilo this week?

Let me state this another way: two trading firms were predominantly involved in handing investors’ losses of 60 per cent or more in their stocks on May 6 but a staid old mutual fund company trading an S&P futures contract in Chicago has been fingered as the culprit of the Flash Crash.

A financial insider makes a big claim ...

According to a new survey, more than three-quarters of Canadians support increasing Canada Pension Plan benefits. Is Canada on the right track?

All the gasoline I want at 24 cents a gallon. That is the de facto price that PG&E is billing me for a full charge on the all-electric Nissan Leaf. Thumbing my nose at OPEC. The new electric cars will be total game changers.

I would love to know the answer to this one. A little help?

Volatility is King in the Cotton Market where the market trades Limit Up and Limit Down More Frequently than Interest Rates are Lowered.

Looming losses from the mortgage scandal dubbed “foreclosuregate” may qualify as the sort of systemic risk that, under the new financial reform bill, warrants the breakup of the too-big-to-fail banks. The Kanjorski amendment allows federal regulators to pre-emptively break up large financial institutions that—for any reason—pose a threat to U.S. financial or economic stability.

In 1931 Capone was indicted for income tax evasion. Attempting to bribe and intimidate the potential jurors, his plan was discovered by Ness's men. Following a long trial, he was found guilty on income tax evasion. In Alcatraz, where tight security and an uncompromising warden ensured that Capone had no contact with the outside world, Capone's control and interests within organized crime diminished rapidly...