Archive - Nov 2010 - Blog entry

Forget what the Fed is saying ... what is it actually doing?

But I'll tell you what hermits realize. If you go off into a far, far forest and get very quiet, you'll come to understand that you're connected with everything. --Alan Watts

The only time that Treasuries actually RALLIED (lowering long-term interest rates) was from April-August 2010: the ONLY time that the Fed hasn’t maintained a public QE program in the last 18 months.

I wrote this opinion piece on Sarah Palin and her populist appeal. I got mostly jeers. Mainly being accused of elitism. Tough being libertarian.

As its memory of the unhappy market collapse of 1929 becomes blurred, it may lend at least one ear to the voices of The Street subtly pleading for a return ” to the good old times.” Forgotten, perhaps, by some are the shattering revelations of the Senate Committee’s investigations, forgotten the practices and ethics that The Street followed and defended when its own sway was undisputed in the good old days.

Kind of a drab hum drum day in the market yesterday as no new countries were close to defaulting, no new IPOs of shitty companies were being sold (and yeah Harrah's, Money McBags is looking at you), and no new news on whether Milla Jovovich will be joining her country's burgeoning Femen movement.

There once was a time when the "learned" believed the sun revolved around the earth, the world was flat, and government spending led to sustainable economic growth. This week's Investment Advisor Ideas focuses on another such misconceived idea, classifying stocks with growth and value designations. While the investment consultant community has firmly adopted the growth vs. value concept, at some point, hopefully in the near future, this classification will go the way of the buggy whip, leaching, and the above silly misconceptions. After all, the classification tends to imply a choice between owning a stock that can grow but doesn't offer much value, versus one that offers a compelling value but doesn't offer much growth. Such a choice is silly - every stock valuation implies a future stream of cash flows to justify its price. If today's price implies a smaller cash stream than a company is capable of generating, it is a value stock. If a stock's price implies greater cash stream than a company is capable of generating, it is a value trap, regardless of how sexy its products are or how strong its future revenue growth appears. It does not get much simpler than that.

If you don't hate Ben yet, you will soon.

The three biggest problems with QE 2 are:

1) The potential for a US Dollar break-down
2) Treasuries falling and pushing interest rates UP
3) China retaliating.

Of these, #3 is the most worrisome for the global financial markets. Let’s be clear here, China is extremely adept at making investing/ financial decisions. And while we do need to take its decision to cut Treasury exposure seriously, I cannot believe China would actually telegraph that it was dumping Treasuries when the dumping really starts.

"Take a position. Do the right thing. Pass Bill C-216. It is the right thing to do. By doing nothing, by leaving us hanging, in my opinion, they are effectively giving their blessing to the court judge and lawyers we are dealing with to bury us alive. I do not know why. I do not understand what I and 400 other sick people did wrong to be treated like this."

- Jackie Bodie, Nortel disabled employee

Retailers are counting on holiday sales this year but on the other hand they are rather pessimistic. It remains to be seen if holiday sales will improve substantially this year. Bling yes.

I think we have created a Banksta thrashing Monsta...;-)

Things were going according to plan (even though the plan was horrifying) and everyone was happy but then Uncle Ben had to screw it up this morning when "The Bernank," speaking in Germany, indicated that the Fed would pull the plug on QE2 if they thought inflation would rise higher than "2 percent or a bit less."

Once we realize what we all agree on, we will have a much better chance of turning our economy (and country) around.

PG: A company that earns above its cost of capital (positive Economic Margins) and is growing its asset base is considered to be following a wealth-creating strategy. Back-tests have proven these companies to be more likely to outperform those companies following a wealth-destroying strategy (negative Economic Margins and growing assets). PG also is trading below it's intrinsic value.