Archive - Jan 2010 - Blog entry

The motto for last year will probably end up being, "You really don't get what you paid for!". In reviewing the banks that were originally included in the Doo Doo 32 (a list of likely doomed banks created in the spring of 2008), I decided to take the devil's advocate perspective (an exercise that we normally pursue) and attempt to build a bullish case for the sectors that I viewed bearishly yet have outperformed the S&P and escaped profitable shorting during the last three quarters. The results are illuminating.

While more and more hedge funds are delving into the mutual fund space, sophisticated pension fund managers, like Barclays, are scrutinizing their alpha managers.

Watching the VIX hit a 16-month low, I am beginning to believe that Uncle Ben and the other members of the FOMC have created a 1980s style interest rate trap for banks and other leveraged fixed income investors via the Fed's asset purchase program. It's all about OAD, if you know why I mean. Unfortunately, nobody on the FOMC does.

Ontario Teachers' buys AIG's Canadian mortgage business and CPPIB makes some internal shifts in management.

2009 was an incredibly interesting year both politically and financially, as both arenas are inextricably intertwined, though on the surface, the leaders from these respective industries often bicker and admonish one another for public show, while smiling and shaking hands behind closed doors. Uncovering this complex and hidden connection almost always requires much deeper digging than is ever executed by mass media financial journalists, who often seem more intent on fawning to banking interests rather than revealing the smallest speck of truth to the public.

Not pretty ...

This article addresses a recent study done by a couple of hedge fund managers regarding the performance of various asset classes during the inflationary 1970s. What performed best on an inflation adjusted basis during the 1970s? Stocks? Gold? Oil? Bonds?

Chatting about the greatest security breach in US history. Food and oil are now national security issues. And for that matter, so is our foreign borrowing.

In this 1.5.10 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 12 technical profiles of the S&P 500 Futures (ES), the VIX, the US Dollar Index (DXY), Crude Oil Futures (CL), Gold Futures (GC) and Silver Futures (SI)...

On December 28, 2009, amid the eggnog-sloshed holidays, the Fed solicited comments on a proposed amendment to Regulation D that would create a new Term Deposit Facility (TDF). As we will soon demonstrate, the innocuously sounding facility is nothing more than a de facto debt issuance mechanism that once again pushes the envelope of the Fed’s statutory (not to mention Constitutional) authority.

Krugman agrees with El-Erian ...

Will 2010 be the year of sovereign defaults ... or can the boys duct tape the system together until 2011?

Right. Accurate economic reporting is literally guaranteed to come out of China! Goldman says so!

Stocks hit all time highs, the dollar soars, and precious metals and commodities crash. Hedge Fund Traders left scratching their heads.

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Top Ten Surprises for 2010

Morgan Stanley, appears to have reacquired the title of the "Riskiest Bank on the Street" with increasing VaR and declining risk adjusted returns that reflect growing risk in its investment portfolio, which is rife with assets that I am quite bearish on.