Archive - Jan 2010 - Blog entry

Institutional Risk Analytics FTW ...

Just another day at the office. Treasury, Fannie, Freddie and HUD have completed a sweet deal. Another $30b down a hole. But his time it won't cost us a cent. Honest, really, this time it'll be different. Lies.

2009 reacquainted the investment profession with the alphabet, as it was the year of the V, U, L, and W. Every economist tried to get recognition for predicting the most appropriate letter to describe the US economy’s expected path. Sadly, very few of those letters made investors any significant amount of money during the year, and now the debate about the economy rages on as to whether it will double-dip, or continue to climb. However, there was one letter that was very profitable to investors for most of 2009 – Beta.

Meeting with the head G-Man. FBI Director Robert Mueller gives his take on the Google Affair. Welcome to the new Cold War. Where is my 20 terabytes of data? One country’s criminal is another’s national hero.

This paper considers the potential liquidity risks related to interoperability ~ the issue at the center of the current multi-jurisdictional regulatory review that has temporarily suspended progress toward increased competition in equity clearing. It discusses several options regulators and CCPs could consider to mitigate the systemic risks that could be triggered from liquidity risks in multi-CCP links, and also presents options to minimise the credit risk to CCPs arising from the failure of an inter-operating CCP.

Pray tell, how can anyone in their right mind trust the economic reporting of company that says it is running 13 cylinders of an 8 cylinder engine leading the world to economic recovery when they overtly, and without denial, censor free speech and publicly outlaw research and even Internet searches on government activities?

The grave unemployment situation not only undermines the economic health and recovery hopes, but is also acting as a major source of financial strain on the Fed's books. It is observed that the Fed has been taking in huge deficits on its books because of UI programs. The total UI withdrawals on Fed books in 2009 were $139 billion against deposits of just $31 billion received from states for unemployment. While the withdrawals in 2009 have increased by 320% when compared with withdrawals in 2007, the deposits have declined by 6.6%. The deficit has increased to nearly $107 billion from nearly no deficit, two years ago.

Are bond markets signaling the start of the Great Transition? Will inflationists or deflationists get the last laugh?

The Big Bonus story is coming out and boy is it going to stink. D.C. has done it's best to put lipstick on this pig. A talking down to the bank bosses and a 'see through' tax. That strategy is not going work.

The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will hold a public meeting at 1:00 pm EST on Thursday, January 14, 2010, to consider issuance of a proposed rule on energy position limits and hedge exemptions on regulated futures exchanges, derivatives transaction execution facilities and electronic trading facilities. Watch a live broadcast of the meeting via webcast on www.cftc.gov.

Yesterday's (1.13.10) extraordinarily out-sized one minute volume spike on the ESH10 (S&P 500 Futures / E-mini, current basis March) has raised many questions from who and how to where and what the hell ... but virtually no one has explained, welp, the only thing that actually matters: the technical posture of key market internal readings.

The five charts below highlight the technical postures of: the ES (S&P 500 Futures Continuous Contract, current basis March) on the 1-minute; the TICK (NYSE Cumulative TICK) on the 1-minute; the VOLD (NYSE Up / Down Volume Difference) on the 1-minute; the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) on the 1-minute; the ADD (NYSE Advance / Decline Issues Differential) on the 1-minute.

It will be interesting to see how optimistic/pessimistic this quarter's bank credit losses will be reported. Here are some very interesting facts on the latest trend in Alt-a mortgages that have been in the news as of late. The following charts were culled from my mortgage default model which was built primarily from date gathered from the FDIC and the NY Fed.

An unlucky bullet in New Jersey. Depreciating the national debt through a stealth devaluation. Buy the Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars and short the Euro. Put some Yuan on your back book for a sleeper. The fifth in a series of seven on The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Annual Asset Allocation Review. (FXC), (FXA), (BNZ), (CYB)

I stirred a debate on Social Security. Some economists from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) chimed in. They sort of supported me. Some 'experts' thought I was 'peddling crap'. There is a market twist to this. It isn't in the price today. But I think it will be soon enough.
The folks at Angry Bear didn't think too much of what I wrote. Their thoughts, my response.

Société Générale (SocGen), France’s second-biggest bank, has told its clients to be bullish on commodities, stay with stocks and "anything but cash" in 2010.