Archive - Feb 9, 2010 - Blog entry

Having lost a Motion to Dismiss the plaintiff’s case based on a lack of standing, and also under a failure to state a claim, as well as subsequently losing a motion to obtain a certificate of appealability for an interlocutory appeal, Mr. Geithner now faces the possibility of a deposition as well as discovery in a case that perhaps was seen as a big “nothingburger”, until just a few weeks ago.

This is the first report of a series of 3 reports on the state of the economy as we enter 2010. Part II will appear Wednesday, and Part III will be posted on Thursday. Econophile, as usual, has a different take.

A story of some folks who stumbled and why. This story could be Greece or Spain in a year or two.

Greece just implemented pension reforms in an attempt to shore up its public finances and others will follow suit...

At our firm we frequently receive calls from clients and readers asking about the likelihood of the passage by the Congress in Washington of reform legislation regarding over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives, financial regulation and/or mortgage securitization. Our answer is small to none given the political trends and the state of the lobbies in Washington, most specifically the large bank lobby that protects the Sell Side monopoly in OTC derivatives and securities. The fact that Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) is still apparently not comfortable with the entirely watered down House proposal to reform OTC derivatives, for example, tells you all you need to know. Stick a fork in it.

The rug may about to be pulled out from under the market. The onslaught of contradictory news coming out of Washington is wearing the market down. An exclusive interview with Andrew Horowitz of The Disciplined Investor.

The levered assets of the banks in many Euro-sovereign nations easily outstrip those nations' GDP's. So when the nations' banks get in trouble from bad banking practices (and a very large swath have), the nations themselves are helpless in attempting to truly save the banks (and instead only institute a bait and switch wherein private default risk/insolvency potential is swapped for public manifestations of the same).

Derivatives trading volumes in January 2010 were stronger, with European derivatives volumes increasing 32.4% and U.S. options trading volumes increasing a whopping 102.4% y/o/y. Cash equities trading volumes were mixed, with European cash transactions increasing 4.1% and U.S. cash equities trading volumes declining 23.7% from Jan '09. Total interest rate products ADV of 2.7 million contracts in January 2010 increased 37.8% from January 2009, and increased 50.5% from December 2009. Total interest rate product ADV is at the highest level since March 2008 !

Today, casinos have much more integrity in their business dealings than do banks. In general, casinos have more cash and more transparent business dealings with their clients than do banks. That's why it's so ironic that most large commercial banks, as part of their "moral code", do not allow private bankers to do business with casinos. It appears today, that the bankers got that one entirely wrong.

If Obama really were serious about restoring America’s economic health, he would demand military spending be slashed, quickly end the Iraq and Afghan wars and break up the nation’s giant Frankenbanks...