Archive - Feb 2010 - Blog entry

Since everyone is expecting it, maybe it won't happen?

Add a real unemployment rate of 17% to the 25% who have negative home equity, and who is left to buy houses? Only those who are bribed. Graduating from the negative equity city the negative equity state. Net baby boomer demand for housing is shrinking by tens of millions of square feet per year.

In his testimony on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did not rule out the possibility that deflation risks could revive. Is he worried about what's going on in Japan right now? Or maybe he's worried about what Bob Prechter is calling the biggest bubble in history...

After running firmly in place, going absolutely nowhere, for 29 weeks, the BKX Bank Index is (still) coiling, (still) marking time before it leaps off the ledge. Tik-Tok, Tik-Tok. In the meantime, a very quick glance at daily, weekly & 135 min charts.

Ron Paul's questions today sounded nutty ... but seem to be backed by an economist with the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee for eleven years, assisting with oversight of the Federal Reserve, and subsequently Professor of Public Affairs at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin

Obviously, even if they're right, gold could seriously correct in the meantime ...

Diamond prices have jumped 30% since March, but the business is being turned on its ear. Your local neighborhood jewelry store is about to get wiped out. A 5% annualized return, with benefits. Eating Blue Nile’s lunch. The stock plunges a nausea inducing 20% in one day. What’s up with those toothpaste tubes? A consumer spending play with a turbocharger, and the reverse.

The Case Shiller housing report, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, and the FDIC Q4 bank report came out Tuesday with mostly negative results. Things like the biggest loan contraction since 1942 ought to grab your attention. These are significant numbers.

Some of the top secret AIG bailout info is out. One Goldman Sachs Guess who's at
the heart of it, making money by creating straight trash, selling it to
its clients then buying insurance to benefit from its inevitable
crash? I quote "divulging the names of the [trash] CDOs could erode their value: “We will be hurt because traders in the market will know what we’re holding.”.

Chen Zhao of BCA Research says the intense debt-deflation pressure being felt in Europe has many similarities to the post-crash environment in Japan in the early 1990s. Deflation pressures are building all around the world but U.S. bond traders are still not convinced. Given the choice between the lesser of two evils, it's clear the Fed and other central bankers would rather err on the side of mild inflation. What will ultimately prevail?

I found a funny connection between the sellers of REO for HUD and the FDIC. Surprised? Nah!

Add the Maestro to the list ...

On the heels of the surprise discount window rate hike late last week, and on the eve of Bernanke’s Congressional testimony, speculation abounds as to the when and where of the next round of tightening. We need look no further than the US Treasury press room, as it has announced today a revival of sorts for its Supplementary Financing Program (SFP).