Archive - Feb 2010 - Blog entry

It appears as if SPG offered a reasonable acquisition premium over what we feel is reasonable for GGP. Ackman's (publicy disseminated) valuations were apparently in the stratosphere (and our analysis clearly demonstrated this point) while Hovde was a little pessimistic. I'll leave it up to the readers to determine who was the most accurate regarding GGP both on the short side going down (I think I was the only one declaring a position publicly) and on the long side going up (I did not have a position).

Fleckenstein, Roubini, Rogoff, Eichengreen all sound off on the European debacle and more on the big, fat Greek swap.

There is an inextricable link between our academic system and the failure of citizens worldwide to understand the dire negative financial consequences of the coming second phase of the global monetary crisis. To help you understand the huge gap of knowledge that is missing from all business curricula today that is necessary to foresee the coming consequences of the second phase of this crisis, I have posted a brilliant speech below by educator Sir Ken Robinson that illuminates the deliberate flaws of our current academic system today imposed upon us by the very financial oligarchs that founded our academic system.

Finally, the "Dumb Money" indicator has turned neutral after spending 28 consecutive weeks in the extreme bullish zone.

When big shots at Goldman start talking I listen. I was surprised at what they said today

We should recall former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Blinder’s statement, “The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth” and thus be astute enough to realize that the often hollow words of Central Bankers serve as a contrary indicator of the truth.

While the markets are in a finicky mood from the China and Greek factors, the rising rig count and producer's capital budget suggests that oil service markets are probably in the process of bottoming this year. Current trend of Offshore & subsea bodes well for oil infrastructure services companies that even Warren Buffett will concur.

Greg Mankiw is talking debt again. He tries to say that the Obama budget is over the top. But he defends a "just right" policy of perpetual deficits. The markets are not going to let that fly. Not in 2010. Greg also blows smoke in our direction about how "good" things were when he was running the show.

An informed view on the Greek fiscal crisis and a brilliant interview with Michael Hudson which exposes the reality on the global financial system and explains why we are sinking back into a new feudalism.

What's a difference of a Trillion dollars in Spain's reported External Debt mean? It changes the debate from solvency to liquidity. An important difference.

As promised, I have posted my State of the Economy article as one downloadable PDF. Here is the link.

Here is a recent conversation (argument) that I, the not-famous Econophile, had with the famous Martin Wolf, the much lauded and highly awarded dean of economics writers and chief economics correspondent for the Financial Times. This time I take him on for what I thought was a pointless article about Germany and the Greeks. Win, lose, or draw?

All eyes on the Vancouver games but there is a post-Olympics winter chill headed our way, and you'll be surprised to find out that all is not peachy in good old boring Canada...

Fiat currencies are looking a little ... thorny

My presentation that explains that says: THIS TIME IS NO DIFFERENT – THE OVER-INVESTMENT BUBBLE