Archive - Mar 19, 2010 - Blog entry

Europe faces a commercial property debt timebomb with almost €1 trillion (£896bn) outstanding from the sector and a quarter of that potentially distressed. The UK accounts for 34% of the €970bn total, with Germany second with 24%. Not to worry, global pension funds are busy snapping up properties but do they really know how long it will be before this crisis blows over? And what if it gets a lot worse before it gets better? Are pensions prepared to deal with those losses?

Easy as 1-2-3 ...

As I warned in my Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis series and amid a depression, this Eastern European government has collapsed. Western European countries (and their banks) have material claims within this country, and when combined with pressure from the PIIGS, may be the ones that set off the financial/economic contagion daisy chain. It is difficult to determine who sets it off, which is why it is best to attempt to determine the path of the contagion instead...

A recent joint poll by Responsible-Investor.com, the Network for Sustainable Financial Markets and AQ Research, showed more than 90% of investment professionals believe moral hazard has increased. And yet, global pension funds and wealth funds who manage trillions of dollars have not taken the lead to push for financial reforms. Why do they acquiesce, and not push for meaningful post-crisis reforms?

The fact that Google will not kowtow to Bejing and will walk away from the market of greatest potential is to me a commendable act. This is a companion piece to my series, "China's Fragile Economy, Its Housing Bubble, and What It Means To Us." China is not a liberal country, by far.