Archive - Mar 2010 - Blog entry

A US debt downgrade could trigger a stampede into the debt of healthier countries. Emerging market debt has a much rosier future of credit upgrades to look forward to than US bonds. A 6.44% yield on an appreciating asset. These days, many emerging markets have little or no debt. The sovereign debt crisis is sending bonds issues by financial responsible countries to decent premiums, while punishing the bad boys with huge discounts. Time to trade in Marilyn Monroe for Carmen Miranda? (PCY), (LQD).

The yuan-induced heated debates prompted two prominent economists--Paul Krugman and Jeffrey Frankel--to come up with two versions of swan songs for China. Ironically, the two, however diverging, could still lead to the same "next black swan" scenario warned by Albert Edwards at SocGen last November.

As Greeks celebrated a scaled-down parade for Independence Day, an IMF-EU accord was reached in Brussels, but many questions remain. China is watching nervously, increasingly worried about the large chunk of its $2.4 trillion (£1.6 trillion) of foreign reserves held in eurozone bonds. No wonder Trichet reversed course and came out in support of the deal...

The S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ Cash Indexes each registered bearish daily candlestick patterns on Thursday's close. Interestingly, the three primary US equity markets registered unique candlestick patterns in the form of a Shooting Star on the S&P 500, a Gravestone Doji on the DJIA and a Bearish Engulfing on the NASDAQ. Charts of the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, VIX, BKX & SKF.

I get screwed, again.

The small banks will lend, if we just stop the too big to fails from stifling competition ...

China may seem to have defied the recession and the laws of economics. It hasn't. When China's bubble bursts, the global impact will be severe, spiking US interest rates.

Here's a link to the CFTC's webcast regarding position limits in the gold and silver futures markets taking place on March 25, 2010, 9AM EST. Anyone interested in restoring integrity to the global monetary system should be interested in these hearings.

A home run begging to get smashed out of the park. Support is falling away like a dress off a prom date. Puts are still ridiculously cheap. The global carry trade is back on. The Japanese government absolutely hates the yen at this level. Exporters are getting killed. Moving Mount Fuji to get what it wants. The world’s credit sharks are looking for a new victim. Final target: ¥150. (YCS)

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced plans for a series of town-hall meetings and expert consultations aimed at reforming Canada's pension plan. I was invited to speak at the upcoming Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce and welcome your thoughts on this important matter.

If this article goes viral around the web, I wouldn't be surprised if the euro tanks and several European sovereign states' spreads blow out. I have busted several of them in another of a long series of "creative" economic forecasting schemes to fudge the appearance of "austerity".

Either JPMorgan Chase is honorably managed or incredibly stupid. A review of the top 4 banks use of Nonaccrual on their GNMA loans reveals JPM standing apart in their "strategic" use of Nonaccrual.

" We have taken testimony from dozens of witnesses and reviewed tens of thousands of documents .... We have looked at the silver market like we never have before and I think there is a window of success that has been opened for understanding about what has been going on and why .... In 35 years, there has been only one successful prosecution for manipulation. So if you ask me if the manipulation standard in the law is working, I'd have to say no .... We need to be more like the police department and less like the fire department. We need to deter and prevent things from happening, rather than merely responding. "

I have a strong feeling that if you dig deep enough into the BofA innards, you will find some stinky stuff. Hey, it's just a feelin'.

The credit rating agencies have given both China and the U.S. credit warnings. How can the U.S. prevent a downgrading? Hint: it won't be from a reduction in spending.