Archive - Jun 2010 - Blog entry

This is Part 2 of a major four part series dealing with what I feel is the primary question investors must now answer: is our future to be inflation or deflation? The answer has vast implications to our investment planning and decisions for the near term, and possibly for our long term. It is a very complex question with a lot of moving parts involving economics and politics.

I think Obama and Geithner will get roasted up in Toronto this weekend. Does it mean anything to the dollar? We will see Sunday night.

Parliamentary pensions, a lavish Bastille Day garden party and ministers’ Cuban cigars are to be sacrificed in the name of economic recovery as the French government seeks to show that ministers are sharing the pain of their austerity drive.

... to Johns who have insatiable lusts.

But BP would try to deny it ...

Kóyo Edo ...

Some thoughts on the Fannie news this week. We do not know all of this story. Some guesses and a suggestion.

Gone are the days when "green sh#%ts" was bleated daily on CNBC amongst a chorus of permabull snorts. Even the experts now recognize the recovery as a BLS swindle, and it is important to reintroduce the possibility of not only a low growth future, but one of outright and persistent contraction.

Margin calls from losing positions have forced hedge funds to free up cash by covering shorts in natural gas. Real demand isn’t coming until we have vastly more pipelines, power plant conversions, and above all, storage, than we have now. Until then, the big production companies are going to race to out produce each other, praying they can use volume to offset price cuts, creating a huge weight on prices. (CHK), (DVN), (UNG).

I have released my opinion of UAL and CAL as candidates in my short portfolio listing, as well as the detailed logic behind the decision.

This is a major four part series dealing with what I feel is the primary question investors must now answer: is our future to be inflation or deflation? The answer has vast implications to our investment planning and decisions for the near term, and possibly for our long term. It is a very complex question with a lot of moving parts involving economics and politics. This is Part 1.

The difference — three or four percentage points — translates into hundreds of billions of dollars when applied to pension obligations.

Which would REALLY suck ...

A quick piece on how we're selecting stocks to short for the balance of 2010, along with a live spreadsheet of over 1,400 non-financial stocks in our initial pool of candidates, including their pricing and key solvency metrics.