Archive - Aug 26, 2010 - Blog entry

madhedgefundtrader's picture

POT is the world’s largest fertilizer producer, and with the global population expected to grow from 7 billion to 9 billion over the next 40 years, a takeover seems like a no brainer. Why not buy another product that the Chinese are voracious consumers for? It’s cheaper to take over someone than to hire people. The recent doubling of the price of wheat in a mere eight weeks has been a shot across the bow of investors everywhere that it is time to get on the train before it leaves the station. Suddenly the entire sector is in play. (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (MOO), (DBA).

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Now, about that “double dip.”

By now, even the most bullish commentator has begun to acknowledge that the Stimulus high is ending and we are likely entering a “double dip” recession later this year.

It is not difficult to see why, every indicator worth anything is pointing to a massive drop in GDP coming shortly. The ECRI, which has a 100% accuracy rate for predicting recessions has just posted its fastest collapse in history and is already at levels indicating another recession is a “sure thing.”

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Quietly and with little fanfare, Gold has made a MAJOR change in its status. The precious metal is largely viewed as THE anti-paper money play by investors. This all changed in November 2009. What happened then? The Sovereign Debt Crisis began in earnest with Dubai asking for a six-month extension on $60 billion worth of debt.

At this point, Gold broke away from its traditional relationship to the US Dollar. Indeed, since then Gold has actually moved in tandem with the US Dollar. The correlation between the two is not perfect, but generally Gold and the Dollar have moved together both to the upside as well as the downside.

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

So what can we glean from this Crisis and the psychology surrounding it? Well, we can see that Systemic Crises follow a clear pattern when it comes to social psychology and how people react. That pattern is:

1) A minor player goes under and people shrug it off for a few months
2) A larger issue arises requiring a vast sum of money and people begin catching on that something LARGER is at stake
3) Suddenly everything comes unhinged and the entire world panics

Today, no more than two years after this debacle, we are witnessing the EXACT same pattern play out on a sovereign basis.