Archive - 2010 - Blog entry

A lot of conflicting data came in last week. There is a lot of positive news, but does it all add up to a recovery or is the cyclical recovery headed for a stall? Nothing has changed the underlying conditions that would relieve the credit freeze. And without credit, the economy will stall.

There is a rational explanation why the public-at-large still grants a great deal of validity to the opinions of people I like to call the “men who cry wolf” – Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geitner, Gordon Brown, Alan Greenspan, et al. It is because the fastest growing export of the Western banking industry (and governments) is now fraud.

It is time to start scaling into a major short in the yen. The Euro/Yen cross is pointing the way. The prospects of Japan raising rates are nil. The government’s pool of lenders is drying up. The savings rate is plummeting. The bill for the world’s worst demographic outlook is coming due. Macro investing at its finest. Look for ¥120 in a year. (YCS)

New York crude has been trading in the $69-$83 range since late September as uncertainty over the global economy has contributed to several failed rallies. The close above $81 last Friday sparked speculation that oil could be targeting $85 in the near term. Now, some traders and analysts say currency movements may play an important role in pushing prices beyond those limits.... or will they?

Don't look now but pension black holes are set to explode everywhere and when they do, they will swallow growth for decades...

I feel like the robot in the television show, "Lost In Space"

Our pal Barney Frank puts his foot in his mouth, again.

As the VIX languishes in the doldrums of teen spirit, lulling market participants to sleep before volatility comes screaming back to life, the CME & CBOE have announced a partnership that will create futures (and options on futures) for volatility indexes across a variety of asset classes. [1] CME press release [2] Crude Oil, Gold & Euro Volatility Index charts [3] CBOE primer on just what the heck the VIX actually is

Two months ago I pointed out an anomaly in JP Morgan's "blowout" quarterly earnings release. Bloomberg's recent story informs us of how big the problem actually is. Let's reminisce...

Here are two horror stories about UK and Canadian health care systems that exemplify what is wrong with government-run health care systems. The dirty secret is that these systems are deteriorating as they run out of money. The result is death to thousands of patients. Our foot-in-the-door health care "reforms" are just the beginning of the end of what is left of the world's best health care system.

White FTW ...

Something amazing is happening in the labor market. The aggregate payroll figures are meaningless. Many of the jobless are getting rehired very quickly. This is proof that the dying sectors of the US economy that are delivering the highest unemployment rates. US employment is really much better than it appears. Without the snow, the February number could have been as high as a positive 100,000. Alert: the markets don’t know this.

Somebody seems to have taken notice of the discussion on Prepaid Legal. Those 40 Puts Impl. Vol. are ripping! And for good reason. The stock and interest in it is on the down move...

Not for a while. The bad news is that a truly economic, price competitive lithium battery is still some ways off. The problem with exploding batteries. The Department of Energy is pouring money into lithium research on an amazingly wide front. The car companies aren’t buying it, and are sticking with proven nickel metal hydride batteries. Unlike past battery car movements, this one is not going to end up crushed in a junkyard. (SQM), (ENS), (XIDE), (CHP), (ZBB).

Surveys by U.S. staffing and payroll companies suggest businesses are cautiously rebuilding staff, especially in professional areas such as finance and accounting, information technology, and legal. Another poll finds increased optimism about small-business employers.