Archive - 2010 - Blog entry

There is a great buzz in the marketplace about new private equity funds being raised to invest in failed banks. The story goes something like this: We are organizing a fund led by the former heads of federal regulatory agencies with big time connections in Washington. These DC players are going to get a front-row seat to play in the sales process for failed banks being run by the FDIC. These funds claim that FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair is giving assets away for nothing and we are all going to make a lot of money in that old fashioned Washington way, namely slopping at the public trough. Unfortunately none of the above is true and many of these "offerings" are misleading or fraudulent.

The big boys have gotten a LOT bigger

The press has recently been flooded with exaggerated reports of widespread well poisonings and forest destruction. A blank check to render toothless any Cap & Trade legislation, block subsidies for natural gas, dilute environmental legislation, and promote the myth that the whole global warming thing is nothing more than a leftist hoax. The ghost of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth returns to haunt. Thanks Dick Cheney! Tell it to the 23,000 Americans coal emissions will kill this year. (BTU), (RTP), (ACI).

The Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (OMERS) announced a 10.6% rate of return for the year ending December 31, 2009, and won an award for Canadian pension fund of the year. Did it really merit this award?

About a year and a half ago I warned that HSBC would be facing
increasing and unanticipated (I was a contrarian on the China bubble)
losses/slowdown in Asia, as well as increasing losses on bad debt in the US. I
believe I was one of the very few who threw this caution out there.

Brace yourself. Nothing is going to happen. A portfolio manager’s worst nightmare, and a trader’s dream come true. Selling out of-the-money-strangles, last year’s suicide trade, could be this year’s steady earner. The VIX will continue to bleed to lower levels. Hiding out in the currency crosses. (SPX), (FCX), (VIX), (USO), (GLD), (TBT), (TBF)

If insider expectations continue to remain low, then why should yours remain high?

What do you do to follow up a massive $75 billion dollar loss? Work hard and see if you can break a $100b this year. Should be a piece of cake for our boys at Fannie.

The real Adam Smith ...

While US workers are now working more hours and have become dramatically more productive and profitable, their pay is actually declining and all the dramatic increases in wealth are going straight into the pockets of the Economic Elite. The financial coup that begun in the US is now spreading across the world, threatening the fabric of our societies. How will this all end?

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Weekly Leading Index stood at 128.4 for the week ended Feb. 19, the lowest reading since November 13, 2009, suggesting growth will slow by mid-year. What does this imply for pensions that are very exposed to private markets?

"It's not something that is 10 years away. It affects the markets currently," he told the House Financial Services Committee. "It is possible that bond markets will become worried about the sustainability [of yearly deficits over $1 trillion], and we may find ourselves facing higher interest rates even today."

Geithner has long been a yes-man to the powers-that-be, who ships pallets of money wherever he is told without question or any follow-up or tracking whatsoever. ..

A review of Bank of America's 4th Quarter Call Reports reveals obvious shift of Delinquency Liability to Taxpayers.

The shrinking contango does not bode well for prices. US hedge funds are operating the world’s second largest navy. You could almost walk across the Caribbean without getting your ankles wet. Don’t buy any more oil at these prices than you can use in your salad dressing. The “monetary” demand for oil is on the wane. There is just a pig in the python in that has to be digested. (USO)