Archive - 2010 - Blog entry

Where is all this leverage? Prime brokers now play hard ball. If you want to short a highly volatile stock, expect to pledge your first born child as collateral. The eminent doctor is increasingly looking like a one hit wonder. We are going to die from ice, not fire, and of boredom, not from cardiac arrest.

China has created a new housing bubble. Here are some excellent reports on what the bubble looks like and some ominous glimpses on how it may end. Like all bubbles it will burst and the economic fallout will impact China's economy and the U.S.'s. The frenzy indicates that the blow-up will occur soon.

As President Obama addressed the nation, the Lords of finance were out defending the private equity industry. They stand to gain the most if financial reforms pass...

Bottom line: A "yes" vote for Chairman Bernanke raises the likelihood of defeat for every member of the Senate standing for election in 2010 and 2012. And in any event, the rising tide of popular unhappiness with Washington and Wall Street promises to remake the American political landscape in a way not seen in the post WW II era. The comfortable assumption of stability in American political life is about to be replaced by instability and change, but that is what democracy is all about.

In this 1.27.10 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 15 technical profiles of the:

(1) S&P 500 E-mini contract (ES); (2) VIX (CBOE Volatility Index); (3) NYSE VOLD; (4) NYSE TICK; (5) US Dollar Index (DXY); (6) Crude Oil Futures (CL); (7) Gold Futures (GC); (8) Silver Futures (SI).

A discussion of the cash flows of Agency MBS and what it means to Fed policy. It might be the basis of QE 2.0 Lite. Also a side story on how Big Ben juiced the market in March/April of last year. Just another one of those things that were done to put some money on the 'Street'.

My suspicions regarding CAT were right on point last year. Unfortunately, the suspiciously engineered "feeling" bear market rally made it very difficult to profit from being right. I still have an OTM position on them. Let's see what comes of it.

ETF’s are bringing a long overdue shake up to the mutual fund world. Say goodbye to notoriously bloated expenses, spendthrift marketing costs, and bogus performance data. You’re the sucker who’s been paying for all those glitzy ads. (EEM), (EEG), (VWO), (GLD), (SLV), (QQQQ), (XLK), (PPLT), (PALL)

In a theme everyone ought expect hear replayed ad nauseam for the next week, the infallible genii at Harvard's Kennedy School tell us (yet, again) that the US will be the target of an Al-Qaida WMD attack by 2013. (1) What stinky BO will announce during tonight's SOTU, (2) the WMD Commission's Report Card & Full Report and (3) KSG's latest ~ "Al Qaeda WMD Threat - Hype or Reality"

Instead of trying to curb short selling, curb the uncertainty that comes from misleading and fraudulent reporting practices.

Now, it is time to see if fundamentals return to the market as the write down's start to roll in. This would have made a good "I told you so" accept for that damn bear rally that totally distorted the price of stocks in relation to their underlying fundamentals. We shall see what happens when the rubber hits the road.

The U.S. and Japan face similar economic problems and they are trying to solve them in the same way: fiscal and monetary stimulus. The comparison is eerily similar. It hasn't worked for Japan and it won't work for the U.S. Japan just received a downgrade warning from S&P over their credit rating and the U.S. is not far behind.

The big news on Tuesday was that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised up its global growth forecast to near 4% in 2010, with significant revisions to US and Canadian growth projections...

We can't tell you because ... er ... it will hurt national security, yeah, that's it ...

I have decided to release a significant amount of opinion on Wells to the public, and have created an extended version of the report for subscribers with geo-specific charge-off estimates stemming from the FDIC/NY Fed model that we have created in house. A rather comprehensive piece of work. It appears that much of the sell side community is much, much more optimistic on the prospect of Wells than I am. It must be the Warren Buffet investment...