Archive - 2010 - Blog entry

That's very hard when you're in a market where cartoon super heroes can say "just buy the f'ing dips" and you start thinking - "hey, this guy knows his stuff!"

In my article "Something Is Happening" I noted a glimmer of positive economic data. I was cautious to not call it a "recovery" yet because there isn't a clear trend. I still feel that way. The Fed and the federal government may yet blow up a recovery. But ... I can't ignore positive signs. I read the same data as other free market oriented blogs out there, I am just about the only one seeing this. "Believe what your eyes see, not what you want to believe."

The Fed continues to loyally serve it's clients ... who sure ain't us

There's an enduring myth that the U.S. has never defaulted on its debt, but that's merely a function of how default is defined. When Treasury abrogated the gold clause in 1933, holders of U.S. debt suffered serious losses, and as evidenced by the dollar's decline versus gold since 1971, Treasury has been a serial defaulter ever since. Assuming a default of the haircut variety, this has been the global norm for at least two centuries, and if the U.S. were to default in this way, it's not something we should fear. Post WWII the largest economic powers were regularly in default of the haircut kind, and the global economy boomed.

The vehicle that will upend the auto market in 2011. Aiming for 10% of the global car market by 2020, or some 5 million units. Tearing up the ball room at the San Francisco Auto Show. Don’t try looking for the tail pipe. PG&E is offering a special Plug-in-Vehicle electricity rate at a 92% discount. What will these cars be worth when oil hits $150 a barrel again? Giveaway price, free fuel, free maintenance. Hmmmmm.

What’s truly strange is to see allegedly educated, intelligent people like Ben Bernanke talk as though the stock market is somehow an economic indicator. I’m sure it’s a great indicator of prosperity if you work at Goldman Sachs or are a corporate insider at a publicly traded company.

However, for those Americans who DON’T have flawless trading records (or stock option grants) stocks have NOTHING to do with your day-to-day activities.

After all, your typical American DOESN’T buy food or pay their mortgage with the profits from their day-trading; they pay with the money they earn from their JOB.

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this offers very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.

Below the thunders of the macro deep;--

Far, far beneath the abysmal news,--

This ancient, clueless, PhD freak--

The Benron sleepeth

They actually want to go backwards.

I would like to feel sorry for Ben Bernanke because of his bumbling and confusion about what to do about the economy, but I can't. Every time he turns around he does the wrong thing. Can you say "cognitive dissonance?"

Those fabulous Bernanke Bears have a great discussion about the merits of BAC, listening to WikiLeaks and investing in NFLX.

Even giving the company the benefit of the doubt, and maintaining the stock’s current forward multiple, shares could easily trade down toward the $11 to $16 range based on the midpoint of our estimates highlighted in this report.

A roundup of reports from around the Web ...

A victory lap for the Armageddon crowd. The hard core faithful who suffered a 20-year bear market in hard assets are now wearing better tailored suits.

Politics has a charming way of bringing reality to lame-duck politicians. The Republican gains in the House and Senate have apparently prompted President Obama to do the unthinkable: freeze the pay of civilian federal workers for two years. His constituency is very upset by this apparent betrayal by Obama.