Archive - Oct 2011 - Blog entry

I call you to attention. I have found a bank that literally has more derivatives risk than Citibank, Goldman, Morgan and JP Morgan - COMBINED! If BAC & JPM are stuffing derivative risks behind your bank accounts, are you naive enough to believe that foreign banks are doing the same?

All you need to read.

Chuck Schumer has a new plan to help RE. Actually, its my idea from three years ago

Ugly numbers speak volumes on how Fed policies hurt the economy. But those policies enable Congress and the White House to run up deficits that make the Eurozone look benign.

Just say no ...

The market has begun to choke on the additional Treasury supply dumped on it by the foreign central banks (FCBs).

We're getting the biggest derivative security in history in the next few days. Some thoughts on how it will be priced.

All you need to read.

So, what can I say? As the lone realist regarding Apple in the Blogosphere/Wall Street/MSM is vindicated, do I get 100s of emails saying I was right (to counter the 100s of hate mail) or do the fanboi investors & consumers continue to ignore facts & math. For those who are interested in actual fact, here's how I see things from this point forward.

Just another coup, which will scalp us of many billions of dollars ...

So, where else are people going to put their money if not into US equities?

Yes...flying midgets!

I often get the feeling that traders and investors have put too great a trust in the monetary magic of the Federal Reserve.

AAPL is well positioned to potentially be a big enough long-term winner to justify the risks, even at its current stock price.  It has a seasoned, motivated management team; a potentially hot product feature to roll out throughout its major product line in Siri, with years of improvements in that technology ahead; unbeatable financial strength; loyal and even super-loyal users;  a focus on secular growth fields; and a low price-earnings ratio based on reasonable earnings estimates.  All this is being said despite being bearish on the stock market as a whole and bearish on the U. S. economy; but AAPL is about as far from the central control of the economy exerted by Washington as can be; it is highly international; and periods such as this recent period of high correlation between stocks have always given way to periods of differentiation.  Looking out to mid-decade or so, there is a significant chance that AAPL can achieve the bifecta of much higher earnings and a nicely higher P/E.  This might yield the world's first trillion dollar market cap company. 

Greece is not the issue here. The issue is that Europe as a whole is broke, facing massive unfunded liabilities, and running out of viable creditors to band-aid its banking crisis. We are literally talking about a banking system collapse over there.