Archive - Nov 2011 - Blog entry

With the European End Game now in sight, the primary question that needs to be addressed is whether Europe will opt for a period of massive deflation, massive inflation, or deflation followed by inflation.

Dick Comes Clean A Week After I Did Him Dirty...

The reason I am so pessimistic is because the bond markets, credit markets and interbank liquidity indicate that the situation in Europe is now into “2008 mode”. Indeed, Treasuries have already exceeded their 2008/2009 peak. Tell me, what do you make of a situation in which the bond markets (which are far larger than stocks) are acting as though we’re in a Crisis worse than 2008… which stocks are rallying?

Catch the wave ...

what we have mostly is an oversold bounce

I am expecting a bounce of 5-10% if all goes as planned.

Within days of the  of the MF Global bankruptcy, the court approved a motion granting what is essentially authorization to continue commingle and use customer funds held at the broker unit.

Banks and ratings companies are sounding their loudest warnings yet that the euro area risks unraveling unless its guardians intensify efforts to beat the two-year-old sovereign debt crisis.

All you need to read.

Iraq (check) Libya (check) Syria,  Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan, Iran

It isn't going to happen

Italy, Spain, France and Belgium will each go to market this week to auction bonds worth billions of euros...GASP!  

A bullish argument? In three words: Print More Money. 

If the mid-summer sell signal of 2011 plays out similarly to the one in 2008, there may be a long, dramatic decline straight ahead. 

Something big has to happen soon, or else...