Archive - Jan 2011 - Blog entry

We continue to believe we are trading in extremely similar fashion to the Feb-April 2010 rally (strong support at 10-day EMA on S&P, depressed VIX, high levels of complacency, widespread overowned sectors, extreme bullishness, etc) which of course ended in a violent sell-off, and as noted yesterday we believe we are now trading at the equivalent of the April 20, 2010 point where equities are rebounding a bit off their first test of the 20-day EMA following an initial break below the 10-day EMA (see charts below).

There they go again! No sooner had we finished praising the Wall Street Journal for their blunt assessment of the coming train wreck in municipal bonds than they do a hit-job on gold.

"We have seen the stock market go up..."

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this offers very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.

The market was down strong in the morning as both fears of rising inflation in China and common sense seemed to hurt sentiment, but then...

Michael Nobrega, chief executive of the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System, has to figure out how to deploy about $20-billion into private investments in the next five years. Will he succeed?

Our esteemed Fed Chairman, now claims that QE has helped by raising stock prices. That was never a reason he listed for launching QE before. In fact, this is the first time he’s even mentioned this as a benefit (though everyone with a thinking brain knows that the Fed doesn’t give a hoot for anyone other than Wall Street which is why ALL of its moves were intended to help them juice the markets).

From the past to the present?

Jeremy Grantham with some hard-hitting soundbites ...

Some odds and ends from the "spooks".

Research in Motion's market share has actually eroded far more than even my bearish estimates, yet it's share price has spiked nearly 30%. This was a profitable short in 2010 and the bear story has not changed. If anything, it has been affirmed and is stronger than ever. Let's take a closer look at the 3rd quarter market share metrics.

"just borrow money at this ridiculous low interest rate and just buy the f'ing dip."

"I have known strong minds, with imposing, undoubting, Cobbet-like manners; but I have never met a great mind of this sort. The truth is a great mind must be androgynous."--Samuel Taylor Coleridge

Retail traders are notoriously wrong at picking market direction/tops and bottoms. Most retail traders very naturally seem to adopt a counter-trend stance and this offers very accurate signals for individuals looking to trade against this group. This daily report is designed to help traders focus their efforts on higher probability pairs.