Archive - Mar 2011 - Blog entry

With all due respect to that Nassim Taleb dude who popularized the term “Black Swasn”, Black Swan events are both overrated and the term is sloppily bandied about by those who may not be putting the requisite thought into just how utilitarian the knowledge of Black Swans actually are. Since you can’t accurately predict, nor back test against, nor adequately hedge against such events, exactly what good is a Black Swan discussion. Well, I can answer that question.

The “Hunt Brother High” is within reach. The total demand for silver today is the same as it was in 1980, when their corning drove it to $50/ounce.
Investment demand is overwhelming industrial demand by a large margin. Should I let target creep take hold and raise my long term forecast to $100? That might be really insane! (SLV), (AGQ), (CDE), (SLW).

A little closer to home....

GBPUSD has made a strong move back into the neutral zone after some strong selling yesterday. EURUSD made a similar move but remains in the long zone even though it has dropped back considerably. We have a slew of PMI data coming out of the EuroZone from 4am EST onwards. Retail Sales out of the UK are likely to have a strong impact on retail positioning, Core Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 am EST is the big number out of the US.

TEPCHO! (Pink Neutron Beams)

A new report from pensions and benefits experts Hymans Robertson has predicted that around £20bn of pensions liabilities could be transfered to banks and insurance companies in the next 18 months, taking the total value of this market to £50bn.

Spin it until the numbers work....

Financial writer Yves Smith wrote on the same topic today, and the policy under discussion is bad for free market economies ... And if we're not going to stand up to THIS, we're less likely stand up to the Dear Leaders' communist manipulations which destroy the value of our investments ...

The goal of Alt-Market is to facilitate barter networking and the exchange of knowledge and ideas for thriving in a faltering monetary environment.

Finding the Holy Grail of cheap lithium batteries. BYD’s E6 promises a 200 mile range for $40,000.The globally integrated, low cost business model beats all. Making competitors obsolete before they even enter the market. Building a “stealth” US dealer network. What will happen to my Nissan Leaf? Is there a ten bagger here in the stock? (BYDDF).

I have been looking for decent drawings of the Mark I Reactors. These are the best laymen oriented drawings I have found, courtesy of Mother Jones Magazine.

Put in your time at the Fed, then collect fat bonuses from the company you helped bailout. Nice work if you can get it.

Bad news for the Goog???

Remain cognizant that what you are witnessing here is the compression of annual refresh cycles into a MATTER OF WEEKS!!! It was only two weeks ago that Samsung stated it was unhappy with its offering in relation to Apple’s iPad 2 and had to go back to the drawing board. Well, they are to the drawing board and back – 2 weeks later.

The Euro just eeked out a new high, invalidating the Head and Shoulders pattern and setting the stage for additional upside gains to 145 or even 150 if things really take off. It’s extraordinary given that the European Union continues to collapse (Portugal is next up on the block).This rally in the Euro has coincided with further weakness in the US Dollar, which has now taken out its 2010 low, leaving the 2009 low and 2008 lows as the final lines of support before we enter uncharted territory.