Archive - Jul 30, 2011 - Blog entry

Got gold?

Whether 'tis nobler at this time to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous financial misfortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of rising debts

Economists will long debate the efficacy of our traditional policy response but, whatever the results so far, there are constraints that place severe limitations on the effectiveness of such policy going forward. The US deficit and the trajectory of US spending is unsustainably high and, as the late economist Herbert Stein famously observed, “what cannot last, will not do so”. Any further fiscal stimulus risks pushing US finances past the tipping point, which would be a reckless gamble. At near zero short term interest rates, traditional monetary policy has become impotent, QE has been ineffective and the Fed has entered uncharted waters with its massive increase in the monetary base, risking inflation once private sector deleveraging ceases and velocity picks up. So neither traditional remedy is available any longer.

With US unemployment lodged stubbornly above 9%, what is to be done? Our policymakers, economists and commentators appear trapped in the confines of a paradigm that is no longer viable. Is there any other policy that might help spur recovery, or must we become resigned to waiting it out?

The recession still has not ended, but Bernanke's hands are tied by inflation.

Sen. John kerry comments that the Chinese "are laughing all the way to the bank" on a downgrading of US Treasury securities.  China owns about 8% of the U.S. debt, so does that mean the rest of 92% debtors, including the U.S. taxpayer, would also be "laughing"?  

Hyperinflation.....