Archive - Dec 2012 - Blog entry

A broken safety net is no safety net at all.  

My thoughts on what is headed our way

The holiday week saw the dollar consolidate against most of the major currencies.  The yen was the main exception as its losses were extended under the aggressive signals coming from the new Japanese government.   

At the end of the week, the other key consideration, the US fiscal cliff made its presence felt.  The recent pattern remained intact.  News that gives the participants a sense that the cliff may be averted encourages risk taking, which means in the foreign exchange market, the sale of dollars and yen.  

News that makes participants more fearful that the political dysfunction failed to avert the cliff and send the world's largest economy into recession, generally see the dollar and yen recover.  This is what happened in very thin markets just ahead of the weekend as Obama's ling last ditch negotiating stance seemed to reflect a retreat from his earlier compromises.

The problem with democracy. 

Selling nuclear and industrial secrets and know-how to China in order to conclude a deal that had been “aborted”...

This is not junk mail...

Enjoy your job in North Dakota while you can as in four years, those shale oil projects are no longer sustainable.

Presented with limited comment

Did you hear me yesterday...or do I need to say it again.  Buy the dip in US Treasuries..it is the only way.

The relatively calm foreign exchange market and equity market in Asia ended abruptly in Europe. It is difficult to find the culprit, other than position squaring in thin markets, but the euro has come off a cent, dragging the franc. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained more than 0.5%, while European bourses are broadly lower, with the Dow Jones Stoxcx 600 off 0.3% near midday in London, led by utilities and financials. Fixed income markets are subdued. Italy's bond auction was adequately received, especially holiday conditions. There have been a few developments to note. First Japan's data was disappointing and this can only bolster the new government's attempt to stimulate the economy both monetarily and fiscally. Worker cash earnings fell a whopping 1.1% in November, nearly three times larger than the consensus. This may have been a factor behind the poor retail sales, which were flat. The consensus had expected a 0.4% increase. Weak incomes and domestic demand may have, in turn, weighed on output. In November, industrial production fell 1.7%, more than three times the decline expected.

Political Witch Hunt by Popular Social Media Sites

More exiting than Christmas!

The US Fed is playing a very dangerous game by purchasing as many Treasuries as it is. But that game can last much longer than anticipated.

Chinese downhill. It is zee only way!

As previously discussed on the govttrader blog, the US Treasury selloff from the 1st half of December has come and gone.  Its time for the next trade.